河北省进口贸易与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2019-02-19 13:48

【摘要】：自从加入WTO以来，中国的对外贸易高速发展，成为了中国经济腾飞的重要动力之一。但是，受贸易壁垒、本币升值压力、通货膨胀压力以及世界性金融危机等国内外不利因素的影响，中国长期奉行的“出口导向型”贸易发展战略已渐行渐远。无论是从发展经验还是后金融危机时代的政策需要来看，中国都应从发展战略的高度重视进口贸易的经济增长效应。许多研究表明，进口贸易能够从增加供给、创造需求等多方面直接或间接地推动经济增长。进口贸易对经济增长的影响因不同的资源禀赋而有所不同。我国地域辽阔，各省市经济发展水平差异很大，因而，在一个相对具体的区域内，在相对稳定的经济和政策条件下，研究一个地区进口贸易与经济增长的关系，更加符合一个地区的实际情况，更加有利于为一个地区的经济发展提供可靠的依据。统计资料显示，2012年河北省人均GDP低于全国平均水平，进口贸易总额居全国各省第10位，这与它本身作为经济大省、沿海开放大省以及环渤海腹地的地位很不相符。因此，本文将研究的重点置于河北省进口贸易与经济增长的关系上。本文在对相关贸易理论和国内外实证案例进行了深入研究的基础上，首先探析了进口贸易影响经济增长的机制原理和发生条件。其次，对河北省进口贸易与经济增长的相关性进行了测算，包括进口贸易对经济增长的贡献度，进口总额、进口商品结构、进口贸易结构与经济增长相关性的回归分析。再次，通过构建联立方程模型的方法，从进口贸易对有效需求影响的角度实证分析了河北省进口贸易影响经济增长的机制。最后，根据实证分析结果，，结合河北省进口贸易的实际情况，提出了关于河北省进口贸易发展的4点对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since China's entry into WTO, the rapid development of China's foreign trade has become one of the important driving forces for China's economic take-off. However, under the influence of trade barriers, currency appreciation pressure, inflation pressure and the world financial crisis, China's long-term "export-oriented" trade development strategy has gradually gone away. No matter from the development experience or the policy needs of the post-financial crisis era, China should attach importance to the economic growth effect of import trade from the development strategy. Many studies show that import trade can directly or indirectly promote economic growth in many aspects, such as increasing supply and creating demand. The impact of import trade on economic growth varies with different resource endowments. China has a vast territory, and the level of economic development of various provinces and cities varies greatly. Therefore, in a relatively specific region, under relatively stable economic and policy conditions, the relationship between import trade and economic growth in a region is studied. More in line with the actual situation of a region, more conducive to the economic development of a region to provide a reliable basis. Statistics show that the per capita GDP of Hebei Province is lower than the national average in 2012, and the total import trade ranked 10th in the whole country, which is inconsistent with its status as a big economic province, a big coastal open province and a hinterland around the Bohai Sea. Therefore, this paper focuses on the relationship between Hebei import trade and economic growth. On the basis of deep research on relevant trade theory and domestic and foreign empirical cases, this paper first analyzes the mechanism and conditions of import trade affecting economic growth. Secondly, the correlation between import trade and economic growth in Hebei Province is measured, including the contribution of import trade to economic growth, the total import volume, the structure of import commodities, the regression analysis of the correlation between import trade structure and economic growth. Thirdly, by constructing the simultaneous equation model, this paper empirically analyzes the mechanism of Hebei import trade influencing economic growth from the perspective of the effect of import trade on effective demand. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, combined with the actual situation of Hebei import trade, this paper puts forward four countermeasures and suggestions on the development of Hebei import trade.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.8;F127

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