基于城市CA模型的产业转型期沛县城市空间演变研究
发布时间：2019-02-21 15:14
【摘要】：沛县是我国东部一座典型的矿业城市，1970年代末以来，沛县矿业产业发展带动了当地整体经济社会发展和城市建设，但在经历了30余年的高强度开采后，沛县矿业产业和城市发展也面临着诸多问题，亟待产业转型。本文试图梳理沛县作为一座典型矿业城市的城市空间演变历程，并探讨产业转型期城市规划的应对策略。由于矿业城市的发展与转型存在一定的共性问题，本文的研究既可对沛县城市可持续发展提供指导，也对大量其他矿业城市实施产业转型具有一定的借鉴意义。对此，本文在北京城市空间发展分析模型（BUDEM）的基础上构建了沛县城市空间演变CA模型，以产业转型期沛县城市空间演变的主要影响因子作为模型空间变量，根据中心城区用地历史数据识别模型参数，模型模拟结果准确度达到70%以上。以此模型为基础，，本文设定了自然发展情景、政策情景与2011版沛县总体规划方案情景三类情景对未来一段时期沛县城市空间演变进行情景分析，得出了在产业发展、城市建设、资源利用与环境保护方面有利于促进产业转型期规划实施的相应政策建议，并根据模拟结果对本模型的准确度、意义及应用扩展进行了讨论。
[Abstract]:Peixian is a typical mining city in the east of China. Since the late 1970s, the development of mining industry in Peixian has led to the overall economic and social development and urban construction, but after more than 30 years of high-intensity mining, Peixian mining industry and urban development are also facing many problems, the urgent need for industrial transformation. This paper attempts to comb Peixian as a typical mining city of urban spatial evolution, and to explore the industrial transformation of urban planning strategies. Because there are some common problems in the development and transformation of mining cities, the research in this paper can not only provide guidance for the sustainable development of Peixian city, but also have certain reference significance for a large number of other mining cities to implement industrial transformation. In this paper, based on the Beijing urban spatial development analysis model (BUDEM), the CA model of Peixian urban spatial evolution is constructed. The main influencing factors of Peixian urban spatial evolution in the industrial transformation period are taken as the model spatial variables. According to the historical data of urban land use, the accuracy of model simulation is over 70%. Based on this model, this paper sets up natural development scenarios, policy scenarios and 2011 Peixian master plan scenarios for the future period of Peixian urban spatial evolution situation analysis, and obtained in the industrial development, urban construction, Resource utilization and environmental protection are helpful to promote the implementation of industrial transformation planning. Based on the simulation results, the accuracy, significance and application expansion of the model are discussed.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F129.9
[Abstract]:Peixian is a typical mining city in the east of China. Since the late 1970s, the development of mining industry in Peixian has led to the overall economic and social development and urban construction, but after more than 30 years of high-intensity mining, Peixian mining industry and urban development are also facing many problems, the urgent need for industrial transformation. This paper attempts to comb Peixian as a typical mining city of urban spatial evolution, and to explore the industrial transformation of urban planning strategies. Because there are some common problems in the development and transformation of mining cities, the research in this paper can not only provide guidance for the sustainable development of Peixian city, but also have certain reference significance for a large number of other mining cities to implement industrial transformation. In this paper, based on the Beijing urban spatial development analysis model (BUDEM), the CA model of Peixian urban spatial evolution is constructed. The main influencing factors of Peixian urban spatial evolution in the industrial transformation period are taken as the model spatial variables. According to the historical data of urban land use, the accuracy of model simulation is over 70%. Based on this model, this paper sets up natural development scenarios, policy scenarios and 2011 Peixian master plan scenarios for the future period of Peixian urban spatial evolution situation analysis, and obtained in the industrial development, urban construction, Resource utilization and environmental protection are helpful to promote the implementation of industrial transformation planning. Based on the simulation results, the accuracy, significance and application expansion of the model are discussed.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F129.9
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