产业部门碳排放波及效应分析

发布时间：2019-03-16 21:34

【摘要】：以中国产业部门为研究对象,基于投入产出技术分别构建需求拉动下和供给驱动下的碳排放模型,采用碳平均传播长度(APL)指标测算产业部门之间的碳距离,衡量产业部门的碳波及效应,并区分后向碳APL和前向碳APL识别产业部门的碳波及链。实证分析表明,第二产业是中国能源消费碳排放的大户,碳排放量高达165 136.884万t,所占比例达到整个产业部门碳排放的98.23%,尤其是炼焦化工金属产品制造业和电力燃气及水的生产供应业,所占比例高达87.52%,其中,电力燃气及水的生产供应业的碳排放强度最大,为2.123t/万元。计算并对比各部门后向碳APL和前向碳APL的平均值和标准差,结果显示前向碳APL数值较大且分散,说明在"需求拉动经济"的政策背景下,需求拉动作用下的产业部门碳波及效应较供给驱动作用下的碳波及效应更为显著。进一步对各部门碳供给产业和碳需求产业进行识别,发现产业系统的碳波及链呈现出错综复杂的网状结构而非单一的线性链条,机械设备制造业和炼焦化工金属产品制造业位于碳波及链的上游,采掘业和电力燃气及水的生产供应业两大部门位于碳波及链的末端,农林牧渔业、纺织皮革木材造纸制造业、食品制造及烟草加工业、交通运输仓储和邮政业等部门之间相互关联和波及,互相转移和吸收碳排放。因此,产业部门节能减排工作的顺利实施,必须从产业系统总体的角度进行科学规划,清楚地认识到各个产业部门在产业碳波及链中的功能和作用,通过纵向和横向的沟通与竞合,推动部门自身和其他部门之间的协同减排。
[Abstract]:Taking the Chinese industrial sector as the research object, based on the input-output technology, the carbon emission models driven by demand and supply are constructed, and the carbon distance between the industrial sectors is measured by the (APL) index of the average propagation length of carbon. Measure the carbon sweep effect in the industrial sector, and distinguish the backward carbon APL and the forward carbon APL to identify the carbon sweep chain in the industrial sector. The empirical analysis shows that the secondary industry is the largest producer of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China, with carbon emissions of up to 1.65136884 billion t, accounting for 98.23% of the carbon emissions of the entire industrial sector. In particular, the manufacturing of coking chemical and metal products and the production and supply of electric gas and water accounted for 87.52% of the total. Among them, the carbon emission intensity of the production and supply industry of electric gas and water was the largest, which was 2.123t/ 10,000 yuan. The average value and standard deviation of backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL in different sectors are calculated and compared. The results show that the forward carbon APL is large and dispersed, indicating that under the policy background of "demand-driven economy", The carbon sweep effect under the demand-driven effect is more significant than that under the supply-driven effect. By further identifying the carbon supply industry and the carbon demand industry in various sectors, it is found that the carbon sweep chain of the industrial system presents a complex mesh structure rather than a single linear chain. The machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and the coking chemical and metal products manufacturing industry are located at the upstream of the carbon wave and chain, the extractive industry and the power gas and water production and supply sectors are located at the end of the carbon wave and chain, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, textile, leather, wood and paper manufacturing, Food manufacturing and tobacco processing, transportation, warehousing and postal services are interlinked and spread, transferring and absorbing carbon emissions. Therefore, the smooth implementation of the energy conservation and emission reduction work in the industrial sector must carry out scientific planning from the overall perspective of the industrial system, and clearly recognize the functions and roles of various industrial sectors in the industrial carbon sweep chain. Promote collaborative emission reduction between the sector itself and other sectors through vertical and horizontal communication and concurrence.
【作者单位】：江苏大学财经学院;江苏大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于非期望产出率熵变的产业系统减排机理及碳减排差别责任研究”(编号:71173094) 全国统计科研计划一般项目“动态关联视角下产业部门低碳生产链演化及减排责任研究”(编号:2013LY122) 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目“基于碳关联视角的产业系统碳减排差别责任研究”(编号:CXLX12_0683) 江苏大学高级人才科研启动项目“碳减排约束下经济内生增长最优路径研究”(编号:12JDG009)
【分类号】：F121.3;X322

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