重庆市部门完全乘数及效应分析

发布时间：2019-04-24 19:56

【摘要】：现阶段，重庆市经济发展的现状还是主要依靠投资来拉动经济的增长及社会的进步，如何通过有限的投资，获得较大的社会效益，即需要了解投资对经济总量的直接影响还需要清醒认识投资通过部门间的关联关系进行传导后对国民经济的综合影响。投入产出分析方法为分析部门间的关联关系提供了思路。利用投入产出模型、从产业关联视角研究不同部门相同额度的投资对国民经济的差异化影响，从而根据分析结论提出具有针对性的策略，优化投资的主要方向和结构。因此分部门研究投资乘数效应具有十分重要的实践意义和理论价值。本文研究的主要内容有：首先，运用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，从总量、来源、投资结构等多个方面对重庆市固定资产投资现状进行分析；其次，以重庆市2010年投入产出表数据为基础，利用投入产出局部闭模型测算了重庆市各部门完全总产出乘数与完全增加值乘数，并深入产业结构内部对重点部门的完全总产出乘数和增加值乘数的在各部门的分布情况进行分析，测算结果显示显示重庆市各部门投资乘数较大且各部门之间乘数的数值大小差距明显，所以相同投资额投资于不同的部门对经济的影响是不同的；再次，利用投产出模型测算了重庆市各部门的简单总产出乘数与增加值乘数，并将完全乘数与简单乘数进行对比分析，量化居民消费扩张效应对乘数效应的影响，结果显示重庆市居民消费扩张效应对各部门均具有较显著的影响并且对不同的部门的影响水平具有明显的差别，，从平均水平来看，消费扩张效应对总产出乘数约有35.15%的贡献，对增加值乘数约有38.10%的贡献；最后，根据研究的结论，提出相关的政策建议并总结本文研究的不足并指出以后的研究方向。本文研究的主要特色在于：（1）利用投入产出局部闭模型，从产业关联的视角来研究重庆市各部门的投资乘数。由局部闭模型所得投资乘数，突破了凯恩斯乘数中各部门边际消费倾向相同的假设并导致各部门投资乘数相同，切实反映了不同部门对应不同的投资乘数，这无疑更符合现实情况并且对政府制定投资政策、优化投资配置、改善投资效率具有参考价值。（2）定量测算了消费扩张效应对各部门总产出乘数与增加乘数的影响。在前人的研究中，无论是利用凯恩斯投资乘数进行分析还是利用投入产出表对投资乘数进行测算，都缺少对这方面的研究分析。
[Abstract]:At this stage, the current situation of Chongqing's economic development mainly depends on investment to promote economic growth and social progress, how to obtain greater social benefits through limited investment, That is to say, it is necessary to understand the direct effect of investment on economic aggregate and the comprehensive influence of investment on national economy after it is transmitted through the interdepartmental relationship. The method of input-output analysis provides a train of thought for analyzing the relationship between departments. Based on the input-output model, this paper studies the different effects of the same amount of investment in different sectors on national economy from the perspective of industrial correlation, so as to put forward targeted strategies and optimize the main direction and structure of investment according to the conclusion of the analysis. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and theoretical value to study the multiplier effect of investment in different sectors. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, using the method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, this paper analyzes the present situation of fixed assets investment in Chongqing from the aspects of total quantity, source, investment structure and so on. Secondly, based on the input-output table data of Chongqing in 2010, the complete total output multiplier and the complete value-added multiplier of each department in Chongqing are calculated by using the input-output partial closed model. And in-depth analysis of the distribution of complete total output multipliers and value added multipliers of key sectors in various sectors within the industrial structure. The calculated results show that the investment multiplier of each sector in Chongqing is large and the difference of multiplier value between different sectors is obvious, so the same amount of investment invested in different sectors has different impact on the economy; Thirdly, the paper calculates the simple total output multiplier and the added value multiplier of each department of Chongqing by using the put-into-production model, and compares the complete multiplier with the simple multiplier to quantify the impact of residents' consumption expansion effect on the multiplier effect. The results show that the effect of residents' consumption expansion in Chongqing has a significant impact on all sectors and has a significant difference in the level of impact on different sectors, from the average level of view, The consumption expansion effect contributes about 35.15% to the total output multiplier and 38.10% to the value-added multiplier. Finally, according to the conclusions of the study, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward, and the shortcomings of this study are summarized, and the future research direction is pointed out. The main characteristics of this paper are as follows: (1) using the input-output locally closed model to study the investment multipliers in Chongqing from the perspective of industrial correlation. The investment multiplier obtained from the locally closed model breaks through the assumption that the marginal propensity to consume in all sectors in the Keynesian multiplier is the same and leads to the same investment multiplier in all sectors, which reflects the different investment multipliers corresponding to different sectors. This is undoubtedly more in line with the reality and has reference value for the government to formulate investment policies, optimize investment allocation, and improve investment efficiency. (2) quantitatively calculate the impact of consumption expansion effect on the total output multiplier and increase multiplier of each sector. In previous studies, neither Keynesian investment multiplier nor input-output table was used to measure the investment multiplier, there is a lack of research and analysis in this respect.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224

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