中国区域3E系统发展水平的空间差异演化研究

发布时间：2019-04-25 11:26

【摘要】：面对资源约束趋紧、环境污染严重、生态系统退化的严峻形势。能源、经济和环境三个系统的交互作用和协调推动是中国走可持续发展道路所必须的是现实准备和前进保障。因此,基于中国的基本国情,我们必须将经济增长同能源绿色发展和环境建设有机结合,通过三个系统的相互协调,进而提升全国的整体效应。本文以3E系统协调发展理念为基础,运用指标体系评价法,建立了一套较全面的3E系统综合发展水平的评价体系,采用主成分分析法对1996-2010年能源、经济和环境各子系统和3E系统的综合发展进行评价,与此同时,运用探索性数据分析法和马尔科夫链法探索我国区域3E系统区域的空间分布特征及演变规律,最后探讨了空间差异对区域3E系统发展变化的影响,并根据我国区域3E系统空间分布情况提出有针对性的政策建议。本文结论如下：(1)近15年来,我国能源、经济与环境系统发展水平逐步提高,但是区域分布差异明显。南部沿海、东部沿海、西南地区3E系统发展水平较高,然而北部沿海和东北地区发展水平较低,以上两组数据差异较大,但组间差异不明显。经济发展水平较高的沿海地区,在一定程度上忽视了环境的协调发展。从各子系统的发展状况来看,我国能源系统发展水平围绕均值上下波动,趋于平稳。同时,我国经济系统和环境系统发展水平整体呈上升趋势。(2)中国区域3E系统综合发展水平的变化在1996-2010年存在一定程度的趋同现象。低水平区域趋同现象较显著,而中低和中高水平区域趋同现象一般,与此同时,这两个区域类型正在进行升级发展。(3)中国区域3E系统发展水平的长期发展趋势在一定程度上受邻域类型影响,从长远来看,观测区域邻域类型为中高水平时,区域升级的发展潜力最大。(4)东部沿海受北部地区近年来大幅下降影响出现小幅下滑;南部沿海与东部地区趋同现象显著;北部沿海和东北地区发展遇到瓶颈,并且作为低水平区域趋同现象显著,受邻域影响较弱：黄河中游升级发展为高水平区域的潜力极大；长江中游受黄河中游和西南地区的积极影响,正在进行升级发展；西北地区和西南地区分别受黄河中游和南部地区的积极影响有望升级到更高水平区域。
[Abstract]:In the face of tight resource constraints, serious environmental pollution and ecosystem degradation, severe situation. The interaction and coordinated promotion of energy, economy and environment are the realistic preparation and guarantee for China to take the path of sustainable development. Therefore, based on China's basic national conditions, we must organically combine economic growth with energy green development and environmental construction, and promote the overall effect of the whole country through the coordination of the three systems. Based on the idea of coordinated development of 3e system, this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation system of comprehensive development level of 3e system by using the evaluation method of index system, and uses the principal component analysis method to analyze the energy resources from 1996 to 2010. The comprehensive development of economic and environmental subsystems and 3e system is evaluated. At the same time, exploratory data analysis and Markov chain method are used to explore the spatial distribution characteristics and evolution rules of regional 3E system in China. Finally, the paper discusses the influence of spatial difference on the development and change of regional 3e system, and puts forward some relevant policy suggestions according to the spatial distribution of regional 3e system in China. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) in the last 15 years, the development level of energy, economy and environment system in China has been gradually improved, but the regional distribution is obviously different. The development level of 3e system in the south coast, east coast and southwest area is higher, but the development level in the north coast and the northeast area is lower. The difference between the above two groups is great, but there is no significant difference between the two groups. The high level of economic development in coastal areas, to a certain extent, ignored the coordinated development of the environment. According to the development of each subsystem, the development level of China's energy system fluctuates around the average value and tends to be stable. At the same time, the overall development level of China's economic system and environmental system shows an upward trend. (2) the change of the comprehensive development level of the 3e system in the region of China has a certain degree of convergence in 1996-2010. Low-level regional convergence is more significant, while low-and middle-and high-level regional convergence is common, and at the same time, The two regional types are being upgraded and developed. (3) the long-term development trend of the 3e system in China is influenced to some extent by the neighborhood type. In the long run, when the observed area neighborhood type is medium-high level, the long-term development trend of the 3e system in China is affected by the neighborhood type to a certain extent. The development potential of regional upgrading is the greatest. (4) the eastern coastal area has a slight decline in recent years affected by the large decline in the northern region; The convergence of the southern coastal area and the eastern part of the Yellow River is obvious, and the development of the northern coastal and northeast regions has encountered bottlenecks, and as a low-level region, the convergence phenomenon is remarkable, which is less affected by the neighborhood: the middle reaches of the Yellow River has a great potential to upgrade to a high-level region; Under the positive influence of the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the southwest of the Yangtze River, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is upgrading and developing, and the positive effects of the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the south of the southwest of the Yangtze River are expected to upgrade to a higher level, respectively.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.5

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