伊春市可持续发展系统仿真模拟与调控研究
发布时间：2019-05-08 08:19
【摘要】：运用系统动力学方法对伊春市资源环境与经济相互关系进行仿真模拟,得到伊春市未来20年的发展趋势。目前伊春的发展态势未达到良好或优质水平,社会经济与资源环境协调发展仍存诸多问题,工业、林业的发展还需进一步巩固与稳定;基于持续发展取向,依据仿真结果设定了伊春市持续发展的常规发展模式、适度发展模式与经济高速发展模式三种方案,筛查选取了适度发展模式作为伊春市未来20年发展的最佳方案,为实现方案顺利实施,研究从人口、经济、与资源环境三个方面提出伊春市发展战略设计,有效调控发展走势。
[Abstract]:The relationship between resources, environment and economy in Yichun City is simulated by system dynamics method, and the development trend of Yichun City in the next 20 years is obtained. At present, the development of Yichun has not reached a good or high quality level. There are still many problems in the coordinated development of social economy and resources and environment. The development of industry and forestry needs to be further consolidated and stabilized. Based on the orientation of sustainable development and the simulation results, this paper sets up three kinds of schemes for the sustainable development of Yichun, that is, the conventional development mode, the moderate development mode and the high-speed economic development mode. The appropriate development model is selected as the best plan for the development of Yichun City in the next 20 years. In order to realize the smooth implementation of the plan, the development strategy design of Yichun City is put forward from the aspects of population, economy, and resources and environment to effectively control the development trend.
【作者单位】： 哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目“基于生态约束的林业资源型城市经济持续发展导控路径研究——以伊春市为例”(编号:41171433)
【分类号】：F127;N941.3
[Abstract]:The relationship between resources, environment and economy in Yichun City is simulated by system dynamics method, and the development trend of Yichun City in the next 20 years is obtained. At present, the development of Yichun has not reached a good or high quality level. There are still many problems in the coordinated development of social economy and resources and environment. The development of industry and forestry needs to be further consolidated and stabilized. Based on the orientation of sustainable development and the simulation results, this paper sets up three kinds of schemes for the sustainable development of Yichun, that is, the conventional development mode, the moderate development mode and the high-speed economic development mode. The appropriate development model is selected as the best plan for the development of Yichun City in the next 20 years. In order to realize the smooth implementation of the plan, the development strategy design of Yichun City is put forward from the aspects of population, economy, and resources and environment to effectively control the development trend.
【作者单位】： 哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目“基于生态约束的林业资源型城市经济持续发展导控路径研究——以伊春市为例”(编号:41171433)
【分类号】：F127;N941.3
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