河南省出口与经济增长关系的研究
发布时间：2019-06-15 20:02
【摘要】：随着经济一体化和全球化的发展，对外贸易日益受到人们的关注，，对外贸易是否能促进经济的增长越来越成为经济学家研究的焦点。很多学者用各种计量模型和方法对不同国家和地区的对外贸易和经济增长的关系做了大量的论证研究，得出的结论也各异。但是很多经济比较落后的地区借助对外贸易的发展，实现了经济的大发展，这对于中国这样一个大的发展中国家来说，具有很大的借鉴意义。我国虽然起步比较晚，但是对经济发展的探索却从未间断，特别是2008年金融危机以来，我国更加注重经济的平稳健康发展，提出要转变经济发展方式，使得出口、消费、投资协调带动经济的发展。而河南省作为中国的一个大省，在国家提出“促进中部崛起”的发展战略之后，在我省努力走在中部六省之首的过程中，研究对外贸易特别是出口对经济的发展具有很强的实践意义。 改革开放30多年以来，河南省经济的发展取得了令人瞩目的成就，特别是国家提出中部崛起这一战略之后，河南省对中原经济区的发展也作出了很大的贡献。但是作为一个人口大省，这是远远不够的，我省的人均生产总值与全国平均水平比还是比较低，所以我省必须加快经济的发展，赶上并努力超过全国平均水平。本文就从出口的角度，阐述和分析了目前的国内外背景和本文的研究意义，回顾了对外贸易中的贸易促进论、贸易阻碍论以及贸易折衷论和经济增长的相关理论，回顾和分析了国内外的相关研究的文献，进而对河南省出口对经济增长的关系进行了定性分析，并运用河南省20多年的数据进行了实证分析，最后得出：出口促进了经济的增长。根据上面得出的结论，笔者结合我省以往的对外贸易发展提出了出口存在的一些主要问题，并针对这些问题提出改进和发展对外贸易的政策和建议，以促进我省经济的进一步发展。 本文采用理论分析和实证分析相结合，纵向比较和横向比较相结合的方法，对出口对经济增长的关系进行了研究。那么本文运用多元线性回归函数通过平稳性检验和格兰杰因果关系检验进行实证检验，最后证明了河南省出口和河南省的经济发展确实存在很强的线性相关关系，既然出口可以促进经济的增长，那么在国际经济不景气的大背景下，我省应该抓住机遇，大力发展我省的出口。如何发展我省的出口，本文首先结合河南省的实际情况提出了出口存在的一些制约其发展的主要问题，并有针对性地提出了发展对外贸易的一些政策建议，希望能给河南省的政策制定提供一定的参考，笔者就会感到十分欣慰了。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic integration and globalization, people pay more and more attention to foreign trade. Whether foreign trade can promote economic growth has become the focus of economists' research. Many scholars have done a lot of argumentation and research on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in different countries and regions with various econometric models and methods, and the conclusions are also different. However, many economically backward areas have achieved great economic development with the help of the development of foreign trade, which has great reference significance for such a large developing country as China. Although China started relatively late, the exploration of economic development has never been interrupted, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, China has paid more attention to the stable and healthy development of the economy, and proposed to change the mode of economic development so that exports, consumption and investment can promote the development of the economy. Henan Province, as a big province in China, after the state put forward the development strategy of "promoting the rise of central China", in the process of our province trying to walk at the top of the six central provinces, the study of foreign trade, especially export, has a strong practical significance for economic development. Since the reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, the economic development of Henan Province has made remarkable achievements, especially after the country put forward the strategy of the rise of central China, Henan Province has also made great contributions to the development of the Central Plains Economic Zone. However, as a populous province, this is far from enough. The ratio of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) to the national average level is still relatively low, so our province must speed up economic development and catch up with and strive to exceed the national average level. From the point of view of export, this paper expounds and analyzes the background at home and abroad and the significance of this study, reviews the theory of trade promotion, the theory of trade hindrance, the theory of trade compromise and economic growth in foreign trade, reviews and analyzes the relevant research literature at home and abroad, and then makes a qualitative analysis of the relationship between export and economic growth in Henan Province. Based on the data of Henan Province for more than 20 years, this paper makes an empirical analysis, and finally concludes that exports promote economic growth. According to the above conclusions, the author puts forward some main problems existing in export in the light of the previous foreign trade development of our province, and puts forward some policies and suggestions for improving and developing foreign trade in view of these problems, so as to promote the further development of our province's economy. In this paper, the relationship between export and economic growth is studied by combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, vertical comparison and horizontal comparison. Then this paper uses multiple linear regression function to carry on the empirical test through the stationarity test and the Granger causality test, and finally proves that there is a strong linear correlation between the export of Henan Province and the economic development of Henan Province. Since the export can promote the economic growth, then under the background of the international economic downturn, our province should seize the opportunity and vigorously develop the export of our province. How to develop the export of our province, this paper first puts forward some main problems that restrict the development of export according to the actual situation of Henan Province, and puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of foreign trade, hoping to provide a certain reference for the policy formulation of Henan Province, the author will be very pleased.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F752.8
本文编号：2500472
[Abstract]:With the development of economic integration and globalization, people pay more and more attention to foreign trade. Whether foreign trade can promote economic growth has become the focus of economists' research. Many scholars have done a lot of argumentation and research on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in different countries and regions with various econometric models and methods, and the conclusions are also different. However, many economically backward areas have achieved great economic development with the help of the development of foreign trade, which has great reference significance for such a large developing country as China. Although China started relatively late, the exploration of economic development has never been interrupted, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, China has paid more attention to the stable and healthy development of the economy, and proposed to change the mode of economic development so that exports, consumption and investment can promote the development of the economy. Henan Province, as a big province in China, after the state put forward the development strategy of "promoting the rise of central China", in the process of our province trying to walk at the top of the six central provinces, the study of foreign trade, especially export, has a strong practical significance for economic development. Since the reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, the economic development of Henan Province has made remarkable achievements, especially after the country put forward the strategy of the rise of central China, Henan Province has also made great contributions to the development of the Central Plains Economic Zone. However, as a populous province, this is far from enough. The ratio of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) to the national average level is still relatively low, so our province must speed up economic development and catch up with and strive to exceed the national average level. From the point of view of export, this paper expounds and analyzes the background at home and abroad and the significance of this study, reviews the theory of trade promotion, the theory of trade hindrance, the theory of trade compromise and economic growth in foreign trade, reviews and analyzes the relevant research literature at home and abroad, and then makes a qualitative analysis of the relationship between export and economic growth in Henan Province. Based on the data of Henan Province for more than 20 years, this paper makes an empirical analysis, and finally concludes that exports promote economic growth. According to the above conclusions, the author puts forward some main problems existing in export in the light of the previous foreign trade development of our province, and puts forward some policies and suggestions for improving and developing foreign trade in view of these problems, so as to promote the further development of our province's economy. In this paper, the relationship between export and economic growth is studied by combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, vertical comparison and horizontal comparison. Then this paper uses multiple linear regression function to carry on the empirical test through the stationarity test and the Granger causality test, and finally proves that there is a strong linear correlation between the export of Henan Province and the economic development of Henan Province. Since the export can promote the economic growth, then under the background of the international economic downturn, our province should seize the opportunity and vigorously develop the export of our province. How to develop the export of our province, this paper first puts forward some main problems that restrict the development of export according to the actual situation of Henan Province, and puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of foreign trade, hoping to provide a certain reference for the policy formulation of Henan Province, the author will be very pleased.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F752.8
【参考文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前2条
1 杨曦;出口退税政策调整对广西出口贸易的影响分析[D];广西师范大学;2011年
2 张丽静;我国对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究[D];江苏大学;2010年
本文编号：2500472
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