四川省人口迁移流动与经济发展问题研究
发布时间：2019-06-22 11:21
【摘要】：改革开放以后,东部沿海地区凭借地缘和政策优势率先发展起来,吸引了大量来自中西部经济落后地区的劳动力。然而近年来,随着“西部大开发”和“中部崛起”战略的进一步实施,受基础设施建设等投资拉动政策的鼓励,中西部地区经济进一步发展、产业结构升级进一步推进、与东部地区的差距缩小,跨省外出的农民工比重下降,许多农民工开始从东部向中西部地区转移,出现了一股“农民工逆流”,我国长期以来“孔雀东南飞”的格局正在发生改变。 四川省作为人口大省、劳动力输出大省,一直存在大规模的人口迁移流动现象,早期,由于与东部省份存在较大经济差距,大量劳动力流出四川,四川省一直处于人口净迁出的状态；2000年“西部大开发”战略实施后,西部地区经济增长逐年提高,人口迁移状态也从多年的净迁出转变为净迁入四川拥有大量且复杂的流动人口,跨省迁移流动人口减少的同时,省内不同市(州)间人口的迁移流动也愈发频繁,这也与不同市(州)间社会经济发展的不平衡性有关。人口迁移流动的本质是劳动力的流动,而劳动力是地区经济增长不可或缺的要素,因此人口的迁移流动与地区经济增长之间存在一定关联。本文将研究的空间范围锁定在四川省,采用规范研究与实证研究相结合的方法,在计量和统计模型的支持下,从重要的经济因素——-迁移劳动力的角度探讨人口与经济发展的关系,并给出相应建议。 本文首先介绍了选题的背景和意义,对国内外人口迁移理论和人口迁移研究的成果进行了回顾和总结,说明了论文的研究思路,并在前人人口迁移研究成果的基础上,对人口迁移的概念作了相应的界定,以此作为展开论文研究的理论起点。本文的第二部分从四川省人口迁移流动、经济发展的实际情况着手,分析了四川省近20年来人口迁移与经济发展的态势,利用第六次人口普查资料,详细描述了四川省流动人口的现状和特点,并比较分析了2010年省内各市(州)的流动人口状况,还对人口迁移流动对社会经济的影响作用进行了分析阐述。本文第三部分理论结合实际,从宏观和微观两个角度分析了影响四川人口迁移流动的因素。第四部分利用四川省内各市(州)2010年的流动人口及相关经济社会因素的截面数据进行多元回归分析,发现社会经济因素能较好地解释省内流入人口,而对省内流出人口与净流入人口的解释力不强,其中第三产业地区生产总值和固定资产投资代表的地区经济整体情况对省内流入人口的影响最为显著,构成最终多元回归模型中的解释变量,而诸如医疗资源、教育资源、文化娱乐资源等其他社会资源因素,由于与第三产业生产总值之间存在多重共线性而被剔除,此外,各市(州)职工平均货币工资(或城市家庭人均可支配收入或农村家庭人均纯收入)与省内流动人口相关性不显著；利用省会成都市1991-2010年的户籍迁移人口与经济增长数据进行协整检验,发现成都市的户籍人口迁移情况与地区经济发展存在长期的均衡关系,二者之间在长期存在相互影响关系。在以上研究的基础上,论文给出四川人口迁移与经济协调发展的政策建议。 本文通过对四川人口迁移流动现状、原因及其与经济发展关系的研究,力争在研究视角、研究方法、选题思路等方面实现一定的可能创新价值,有助于四川政府制定相应的人口政策、引导人口合理有序迁移流动,并为其他一些地区提供可能的借鉴。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up, the eastern coastal area, with the advantage of the geopolitical and policy advantages, has taken the lead in the development of the labor force from the backward areas of the central and western regions. In recent years, however, with the further implementation of the "the development of the western region" and "the rise of the middle part" strategy and the encouragement of investment-driven policies such as infrastructure construction, the economy of the central and western regions is further developed, the industrial structure upgrading is further advanced, and the gap with the eastern region is reduced, The proportion of migrant workers from the provinces of the province has dropped, and many of the migrant workers began to move from the east to the central and western regions, and a "counter-current" of the migrant workers appeared, and the pattern of "peacock's south-east" in China has changed. Sichuan Province, as the largest province of the population and the large labor output, has been a large-scale population transfer phenomenon. In the early days, due to the large economic gap with the eastern provinces, a large amount of labor force flows out of Sichuan and Sichuan Province has been in the shape of the net emigration of the population. After the "Great Development of the West" in 2000, the economic growth of the western region has increased year by year, and the migration status of the population has changed from the net out of many years to a net migration to Sichuan, which has a large and complex floating population, and the same with the reduction of the floating population in the trans-province At the time of, the migration and flow of the population in different cities (states) in the province are also becoming more frequent, which is also the imbalance between the social and economic development of different cities (states). The essence of the migration of the population is the flow of the labor force, and the labor force is an essential element of the regional economic growth, so there is a certain relation between the migration flow of the population and the economic growth of the region In this paper, the spatial range of the study is locked in Sichuan Province, and the method of combining the normative research and the empirical study is adopted. The relationship between population and economic development is discussed from the point of view of the important economic factors _-the migration of the labor force with the support of the measurement and statistical model, and the corresponding construction is given. In this paper, the background and significance of the topic selection are introduced in this paper, and the results of the migration and migration of the population at home and abroad are reviewed and summarized, the research ideas of the paper are described, and the concept of the migration of the population is made on the basis of the research results of the previous population migration. The definition of this paper is the basis of the research of the paper. The second part of this paper starts with the actual situation of population migration and economic development in Sichuan Province, and analyses the situation of population migration and economic development in recent 20 years in Sichuan Province. The sixth census data is used to describe the present situation of the floating population in Sichuan Province. And the influence of the population migration flow on the social economy is also analyzed. The third part of this paper analyses the influence of the migration of the population in Sichuan from two aspects: macro and micro. The fourth part uses the cross-section data of the floating population and related economic and social factors in the city (state) in the province of Sichuan Province for multiple regression analysis, and finds that the socio-economic factors can well explain the inflow of the population in the province, and the explanation of the population and the net inflow of the population in the province The force is not strong, in which the overall situation of the regional economy of the tertiary industry and the investment of fixed assets has the most significant effect on the inflow of the population in the province, which constitutes the explanatory variable in the final multiple regression model, such as medical resources and education. The factors of other social resources, such as resources, cultural and entertainment resources, are excluded due to the multiple co-linear relationship with the product of the third industry In addition, the average monetary wage in each city (state) (or the per capita disposable income of the urban family or per capita net income of the rural households) is not related to the floating population in the province, and the population and economic growth data of the registered household in Chengdu, the provincial capital,1991-2010 The whole test shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the migration of the registered population of Chengdu and the development of the regional economy. On the basis of the above research, the paper gives the administration of population migration and economic development in Sichuan. By studying the present situation, the reason of the migration of the population in Sichuan and its relationship with the economic development, this paper aims to realize some possible innovative value in the aspects of the research angle, the research method, the thought of the subject, and help the government of Sichuan to develop the corresponding research. Population policy to guide the rational and orderly migration of the population and to provide other areas
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;C924.2
本文编号：2504532
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up, the eastern coastal area, with the advantage of the geopolitical and policy advantages, has taken the lead in the development of the labor force from the backward areas of the central and western regions. In recent years, however, with the further implementation of the "the development of the western region" and "the rise of the middle part" strategy and the encouragement of investment-driven policies such as infrastructure construction, the economy of the central and western regions is further developed, the industrial structure upgrading is further advanced, and the gap with the eastern region is reduced, The proportion of migrant workers from the provinces of the province has dropped, and many of the migrant workers began to move from the east to the central and western regions, and a "counter-current" of the migrant workers appeared, and the pattern of "peacock's south-east" in China has changed. Sichuan Province, as the largest province of the population and the large labor output, has been a large-scale population transfer phenomenon. In the early days, due to the large economic gap with the eastern provinces, a large amount of labor force flows out of Sichuan and Sichuan Province has been in the shape of the net emigration of the population. After the "Great Development of the West" in 2000, the economic growth of the western region has increased year by year, and the migration status of the population has changed from the net out of many years to a net migration to Sichuan, which has a large and complex floating population, and the same with the reduction of the floating population in the trans-province At the time of, the migration and flow of the population in different cities (states) in the province are also becoming more frequent, which is also the imbalance between the social and economic development of different cities (states). The essence of the migration of the population is the flow of the labor force, and the labor force is an essential element of the regional economic growth, so there is a certain relation between the migration flow of the population and the economic growth of the region In this paper, the spatial range of the study is locked in Sichuan Province, and the method of combining the normative research and the empirical study is adopted. The relationship between population and economic development is discussed from the point of view of the important economic factors _-the migration of the labor force with the support of the measurement and statistical model, and the corresponding construction is given. In this paper, the background and significance of the topic selection are introduced in this paper, and the results of the migration and migration of the population at home and abroad are reviewed and summarized, the research ideas of the paper are described, and the concept of the migration of the population is made on the basis of the research results of the previous population migration. The definition of this paper is the basis of the research of the paper. The second part of this paper starts with the actual situation of population migration and economic development in Sichuan Province, and analyses the situation of population migration and economic development in recent 20 years in Sichuan Province. The sixth census data is used to describe the present situation of the floating population in Sichuan Province. And the influence of the population migration flow on the social economy is also analyzed. The third part of this paper analyses the influence of the migration of the population in Sichuan from two aspects: macro and micro. The fourth part uses the cross-section data of the floating population and related economic and social factors in the city (state) in the province of Sichuan Province for multiple regression analysis, and finds that the socio-economic factors can well explain the inflow of the population in the province, and the explanation of the population and the net inflow of the population in the province The force is not strong, in which the overall situation of the regional economy of the tertiary industry and the investment of fixed assets has the most significant effect on the inflow of the population in the province, which constitutes the explanatory variable in the final multiple regression model, such as medical resources and education. The factors of other social resources, such as resources, cultural and entertainment resources, are excluded due to the multiple co-linear relationship with the product of the third industry In addition, the average monetary wage in each city (state) (or the per capita disposable income of the urban family or per capita net income of the rural households) is not related to the floating population in the province, and the population and economic growth data of the registered household in Chengdu, the provincial capital,1991-2010 The whole test shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the migration of the registered population of Chengdu and the development of the regional economy. On the basis of the above research, the paper gives the administration of population migration and economic development in Sichuan. By studying the present situation, the reason of the migration of the population in Sichuan and its relationship with the economic development, this paper aims to realize some possible innovative value in the aspects of the research angle, the research method, the thought of the subject, and help the government of Sichuan to develop the corresponding research. Population policy to guide the rational and orderly migration of the population and to provide other areas
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;C924.2
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