考虑船舶适货性的干散货船队随机规划模型

发布时间：2018-01-05 00:03

本文关键词：考虑船舶适货性的干散货船队随机规划模型　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前航运市场仍未走出低迷状态,运力过剩现象显著、市场波动频繁,航运企业都面临着巨大的经营压力。为了更好地应对航运市场的挑战,及时、科学地进行船队规划至关重要。虽然关于船队规划的研究早已开始,但是大部分研究只能在特定的假设下解决问题,距离实际应用还有一定的距离。本文在船队规划理论与相关研究的基础上,细化对船队规划中船型选择的研究,从船舶适货性的角度研究船型选择问题,并且充分考虑航运市场的不确定性,构建了一个干散货船队随机规划模型。该模型以规划期内船队运营总利润最大为目标,并考虑企业投资能力,帮助企业针对如何购置船舶、租赁船舶、调配船舶等问题做出决策。文章通过求解模型,得出船队各规划期内的最优发展策略及最优船舶调配方案。文章以远洋干散货运输公司S为例,为其干散货船队未来4年的发展进行规划,决定每年船队买卖、租赁和闲置船舶的种类与数量,并给出船舶调配方案。研究结果表明,本文提出的模型更符合市场的实际情况,具有较强的市场适应性；在市场需求波动的情况下进行船队规划,船型选择时考虑船舶的适货性能够提高船队应对风险的能力、提高船队经营的灵活性,帮助企业增加盈利。
[Abstract]:At present, the shipping market is still not out of the depressed state, the phenomenon of excess capacity is obvious, the market fluctuates frequently, the shipping enterprises are facing enormous operating pressure. In order to better meet the challenges of the shipping market, timely. It is very important to carry out fleet planning scientifically. Although the research on fleet planning has already begun, most of the studies can only solve the problem under certain assumptions. On the basis of fleet planning theory and related research, this paper refines the study of ship type selection in fleet planning, and studies the ship type selection from the point of view of ship cargo suitability. Considering the uncertainty of shipping market, a stochastic programming model of dry bulk fleet is constructed, which aims at the maximum total profit of fleet operation during the planning period, and considers the investment ability of enterprises. This paper helps enterprises to make decisions on how to purchase ships, lease ships, deploy ships, etc. In this paper, the model is solved. The optimal development strategy and the optimal ship deployment scheme in each planning period of the fleet are obtained. Taking the ocean dry bulk transportation company S as an example, the paper plans for the development of its dry bulk fleet in the next 4 years, and decides the annual fleet sale and purchase. The types and the number of chartered and idle ships are also given. The results show that the model proposed in this paper is more suitable for the market and has a strong adaptability to the market. In the case of fluctuating market demand, fleet planning and ship type selection can improve the fleet's ability to deal with risks, improve the flexibility of fleet management, and help enterprises increase their profits.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U692.3

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