瓦斯隧道施工期风险等级的FDA法评价

发布时间：2018-01-05 07:29

本文关键词：瓦斯隧道施工期风险等级的FDA法评价　出处：《重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在综合分析国内外瓦斯隧道施工事故的基础上,确立了地层岩性、地质结构、煤层厚度、隧道埋深及水文地质条件等5类指标为影响瓦斯隧道施工期风险的关键主因素,由此将瓦斯隧道施工期风险划分为5个等级;然后,建立了瓦斯隧道施工期风险等级评价的FDA法评价体系及其正规化评价流程,并采用23个瓦斯隧道先验风险样本对其进行学习和回判,获得了相应的风险判别函数;最后,对我国20个瓦斯隧道施工期风险等级进行了验证性评价,所得结果和实际相符。FDA法具有稳健可靠的泛化评价计算能力,用于安全评价时误判率低、综合判别能力强,可在同类复杂系统工程施工期风险评价中推广应用。
[Abstract]:Based on the comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign gas tunnel construction accidents, the strata lithology, geological structure and coal seam thickness are established. Five kinds of indexes, such as tunnel depth and hydrogeological conditions, are the key factors affecting the risk during the construction period of gas tunnel, so the risk of gas tunnel during construction period is divided into five grades. Then, the FDA evaluation system of gas tunnel construction period risk grade evaluation and its regularization evaluation process are established, and 23 gas tunnel prior risk samples are used to study and rejudge it. The corresponding risk discriminant function is obtained. Finally, the risk grade of 20 gas tunnels in our country during the construction period has been verified and evaluated. The results are in accordance with the actual results. FDA method has a robust and reliable ability to calculate the generalized evaluation. It can be widely used in the risk assessment of similar complex system engineering during construction period because of its low misjudgment rate and strong comprehensive discriminant ability when it is used in safety evaluation.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学力学与建筑工程学院;中南大学资源与安全工程学院;
【基金】：交通部西部交通科技计划项目(200831878518)
【分类号】：U455
【正文快照】： 0引言当前,我国山区公路工程中常常遇到瓦斯隧道。瓦斯隧道建设除了一般隧道所具有的塌方冒顶、突(涌)水、突泥、大变形、岩爆等危险外,还存在瓦斯中毒窒息、燃烧爆炸、煤和瓦斯突出等特异性危险。因此,有必要加强瓦斯隧道施工期安全风险评价,提高安全生产水平。当前这方面的

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