基于乘客感知的公交出行时间可靠性研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 13:00

本文关键词：基于乘客感知的公交出行时间可靠性研究　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会的发展交通压力逐渐增大,大力发展公交成为缓解这一问题的有效途径,为了提高常规公交车对乘客的吸引力,本文从乘客的角度,充分考虑到其在整个出行过程中受到外界以及自身因素影响情况下的心理感受。为了更好地描述公交的出行时间规律,用一个概率指标即可靠性对其进行描述,在借鉴其他学者研究成果的基础上,提出了一个新的可靠性研究指标,从而为本文的研究提供服务。乘客整个公交出行可以分为候车、换乘、行驶三个过程来完成,因此本文分别从这三个方面进行了基于乘客感知的可靠性研究。对于乘客感知候车时间可靠性的研究,本文首先利用调查得到的数据拟合出了乘客到达时间服从伽马分布,推导出大量乘客的平均候车时间,可以近似作为乘客期望候车时间,乘客以往的候车经验用经验池进行存储,并且最新一次的候车经验会继续更新经验池,最后通过模型推导得到乘客感知候车时间主要由估计候车时间和获得的候车时间两部分组合而成,在乘客感知候车时间可靠性中用感知候车时间和最大容忍候车时间作为参数评价可靠性为今后出行提供借鉴。乘客感知换乘时间可靠性是本文研究的难点,通过公式的推导得到了影响乘客换乘时间的主要因素是乘客乘坐的前后两辆公交车的到达时间,本文应用锥型流预测的方法得到了公交在路段上的行程时间,并且对交叉口的平均延误时间进行了推导,进而得到理论上的乘客换乘时间,近似作为乘客估计换乘时间,同时还对乘客感知换乘时间的影响因素进行了分析,并且对乘客感知换乘时间可靠性进行了相应的研究。对于乘客车内感知行程时间可靠性的研究,首先对行程时间的影响因素进行分析,得到了乘客车内感知行程时间的主要影响因素,用层次分析法和参量分析的方法对模型中的参数进行标定,并且用70、82、84三条线路上调查的数据对模型进行了验证,大部分相对误差都能控制在25%以内,最后对乘客车内感知行程时间可靠性进行计算与分析,用一个算例验证了乘客车内感知时间可靠性最低的达到76.7%。本文最后对三个可靠性进行组合,可以用来评价整个出行过程中的乘客感知时间可靠性。
[Abstract]:With the gradual increase of the development of the traffic pressure of the society, vigorously develop the public transportation has become an effective way to alleviate this problem, in order to improve the conventional bus attractive to passengers, the passengers from the point of view, give full consideration to the external factors and their own feelings in the case of the travel process. In order to better describe the travel time regular bus, with a probability that the description of the reliability, on the basis of the research results of other scholars, proposed a new index of reliability research, in order to provide services for this research. The whole passenger bus travel can be divided into waiting, transfer, driving three process to complete, therefore this paper from the three aspects of the research on the reliability of passengers based on perception. For the study of the passengers' waiting time reliability, this paper use check The data fitting of the passenger arrival time obeys the gamma distribution, the average waiting time are derived in a large number of passengers, passengers can be approximated as expected waiting time, waiting passengers experience with the experience of the storage pool, and the latest waiting experience will continue to update the experience pool, finally through the model derived the passengers' waiting time mainly by the estimated waiting time and the waiting time of a combination of two parts, in the passenger waiting time perception reliability perception by the waiting time and the maximum tolerated waiting time as parameters of reliability evaluation for future reference. The passengers' travel time reliability transfer is the difficulty of the research, through the formula of the main factors affecting the transfer of passengers time is the arrival time of two buses and passengers, are applying the method of conical flow prediction The bus on the road section travel time, and the average delay time of the intersection is derived, and then get the passenger transfer time theory, approximate estimation as a passenger transfer time, and factors impact of the passengers' transfer time were analyzed, and the passengers' transfer time reliability is discussed. Research on passenger car perceived travel time reliability, firstly the influencing factors of the travel time of the analysis, the main influencing factors of perceived travel time by bus, analysis method and parameters to calibrate the parameters of the model by using AHP, the model was verified by 70,82,84 and investigation on three routes most of the data, the relative error can be controlled within 25%, the last passenger car perceived travel time reliability were calculated and analyzed by a numerical A case study shows that the lowest perceived time and reliability of passenger car reaches 76.7%.. In the end, the three reliability combinations can be used to evaluate passengers' perception time reliability in the whole travel process.

【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17

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