基于后悔值准则的需求不确定下船队规划

发布时间：2018-01-15 14:01

本文关键词：基于后悔值准则的需求不确定下船队规划　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：航运业的发展历史悠久,同时具有国际化的特点。一直以来,世界经济、政治等众多因素影响着航运市场的发展变化。近几十年,因为世界经济和国际贸易的繁荣发展,国际航运业也获得了空前的发展。同时国际航运也反作用于世界的经济发展,对世界经济一体化以及国际贸易全球化起到了重要的推动作用,成为国家发展最重要的基础性产业之一。各个国家不论经济发展程度如何都对发展航运的重要性有了深刻认识。因此,各国政府都加大了对航运业的投资力度,使世界商船队的规模得到了急剧增长。始于2008年金融危机,对航运业造成重大打击,在需求明显回落的情况下由世界商船队的过度增长导致的运力过剩问题愈发严重,世界部分商船队也将面临着减速、停航的命运。航运企业也受到巨大考验。这样控制成本,降低风险就成为了航运企业进行船队规划时,较为重要的目标。但是未来的航运需求是不确定的,而一种预测方法很难制定出符合未来变化的预测结果,单单对一种预测方法的结果进行规划,很容易造成规划结果的偏失。而船舶本身具有很高的价值,同时船队规划具有长期性,规划失误,能够对公司造成很大的经济影响。本文通过多种预测方法的预测结果确立的情景集对船队进行最小最大后悔值模型的建立及求解,得到一个具有相对鲁棒性的规划方案,能够有效地对未来需求不确定对船队规划造成的风险进行规避。并通过一个算例进行验证。通过算例进行运算,在确定性规划下的结果与最小最大后悔值法的结果进行比较,从而确定最小最大后悔值法对风险的抗性大于一般的确定性规划。
[Abstract]:The shipping industry has a long history of development and has the characteristics of internationalization. All along, the world economy, politics and other factors affect the development of the shipping market. Because of the prosperity and development of the world economy and international trade, the international shipping industry has also achieved unprecedented development. At the same time, the international shipping industry also counteracts to the world economic development. It has played an important role in promoting the integration of the world economy and the globalization of international trade. As one of the most important basic industries for national development, every country has a profound understanding of the importance of developing shipping no matter how far its economic development is. Therefore, the governments of all countries have increased their investment in the shipping industry. The size of the world's merchant fleet has grown dramatically since the financial crisis in 2008, which has dealt a major blow to the shipping industry. The overcapacity caused by the excessive growth of the world merchant fleet is becoming more and more serious, and some of the world's merchant fleets will also be faced with deceleration. The fate of the suspension. Shipping companies are also subjected to a huge test. In this way, cost control and risk reduction has become a more important target for shipping companies in fleet planning. But the future shipping demand is uncertain. However, it is difficult for a forecasting method to make prediction results that accord with the future changes. It is easy to cause the bias of the planning results if only the results of one forecasting method are planned, and the ship itself has a high value. At the same time, fleet planning has a long-term nature, planning mistakes. This paper establishes and solves the minimum and maximum regret value model of the fleet through the scenario set established by the forecasting results of various forecasting methods. A relatively robust planning scheme is obtained, which can effectively avoid the risk of fleet planning caused by uncertainty of future demand. The results under deterministic programming are compared with the results of the minimum maximum regret value method, and it is determined that the minimum maximum regret value method is more resistant to risk than the general deterministic programming method.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U692.3

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