PPP模式下高速公路项目的风险评价与分担研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 07:05

本文关键词：PPP模式下高速公路项目的风险评价与分担研究　出处：《浙江海洋大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

更多相关文章： 高速公路 PPP 风险评价 风险分担

【摘要】：现今,高速公路在国家综合交通运输网络中的作用越来越突出,然而传统的投资模式已经不能满足高速公路建设需求,此时,PPP模式的优势不断凸显并得到了相关政府部门的认可。虽然PPP模式具有传统投资方式所不具备的优势,但是高速公路PPP项目投资资金量大、建设周期长、涉及的参与方众多,准确评估项目风险、合理分配风险因素已经成为风险管理的核心任务。本文站在公共部门立场上,从高速公路建设现状和投资现状出发,详细阐述现阶段公路建设和投资所存在不足之处,论证了高速公路项目引入PPP模式的必然性和优越性。其次,在结合相关文献和国内外工程实例的基础上,识别并分析了高速公路PPP项目的4个一级指标、12个二级指标和33个三级指标风险,通过层次分析法计算各个风险指标权重并结合风险隶属确定整个工程的风险等级。为了进一步完善高速公路PPP项目相关风险理论,本文在风险分配原则的指导下,运用shapley值模型,计算出公共部门和私人部门的风险分担比例。为了更符合风险分担的实际情况,综合分析项目参与者的风险分担能力修正原始shapley值,使得风险承担的比例更加符合项目参与各方的实际承受能力,并能减少项目合作风险,保证项目顺利进行。最后以重庆某高速公路为例,对风险评价模型和分担模型进行实证分析。
[Abstract]:Today, the highway transportation network becomes more and more prominent in the country, but the traditional investment model has been unable to meet the demand of highway construction, at the same time, the advantages of PPP mode and continue to highlight the relevant government departments approval. Although the PPP model with the traditional way of investment do not have the advantage, but the amount of highway investment funds the PPP project is large, long construction period, involving many parties involved, accurate assessment of project risk, risk management has become the core task of the rational allocation of risk factors. This paper stands in the public sector position, starting from the present situation of highway construction and investment situation, elaborated the current highway construction and investment exist deficiencies, inevitability and the highway project demonstrates the advantage of the introduction of the PPP model. Secondly, on the basis of relevant literature at home and abroad and engineering examples, identification And the analysis of the PPP project of Highway 4 level indicators, 12 level two indexes and 33 level three indexes of risk calculation, the weight of each risk index and risk of the whole project to determine the membership level of risk by AHP. In order to further improve the relevant theory of risk in PPP project of highway, this paper under the guidance of the principles of risk allocation and using the Shapley value model, calculate the risk of the public and private sectors. In order to share more in line with the actual situation of risk sharing, comprehensive risk analysis of the project participants share the ability to modify the original Shapley value, the risk ratio is more consistent with the actual capacity of the parties involved in the project, and can reduce the risk of project cooperation, ensure project smoothly. Finally take the Chongqing expressway as an example, makes an empirical analysis on the risk assessment model and sharing model.

【学位授予单位】：浙江海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U415.1

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