基于PSC检查结果的船舶事故原因研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 18:59

本文关键词： PSC检查缺陷因素因子分析 Logit回归事故　出处：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：减少和控制船舶交通事故的发生,一直以来是海运界研究和解决的首要问题。为了有效的减少和控制船舶交通事故的发生,船舶安全管理的重点由事故发生后的经验型安全管理向事前可预防的安全管理转变,这就必须明确事故和导致事故发生的潜在因素之间的相互关系,以使安全管理更有针对性的做好事前的可预防。PSC检查结果可以反映船舶自首次接受检查到现在或报废以来的安全检查状况,检查的标准和记录的数据统一性、客观性,且保存在数据库中,比较全面反映了船舶信息和船舶的安全隐患状况,有效的利用该数据分析研究船舶安全状况以及和事故之间的关系,对提升船舶安全管理等方面具有十分重要的意义。本文从船舶的缺陷项因素入手,收集分析2000年到2013年IMO网站统计的2300起船舶事故案列和东京备忘录和巴黎备忘录中的PSC检查数据,得到600起事故船舶和600起非事故船舶数据样本,利用因子分析方法提取PSC检查数据的几个关键公因子,运用逻辑斯谛回归(Logit)分析方法明确提取的事故潜在因素的公因子与船舶事故之间的相关性,确定PSC检查得到的危险因素与船舶事故之间的安全评估模型;明确了事故发生和以PSC检查结果为对象的事故潜在因素的关联性,整体的准确性达到80%左右。根据模型可知,无线电通信、推进和辅助机械缺陷项对船舶碰撞和触碰事故的发生比影响很大;推进和辅助机械、无线电通信、证书和文件缺陷项对船舶搁浅和触礁事故的发生比影响很大;船舶结构、水密状态、无线电通信缺陷项对船舶倾覆事故的发生比影响很大。但是由于船舶事故数据的限制以及相应可查询的PSC检查数据的有限,这意味本文的分析不是很完整,还有很大的发展空间。
[Abstract]:Reducing and controlling the occurrence of ship traffic accidents has always been the most important problem to be studied and solved by the shipping industry. In order to effectively reduce and control the occurrence of ship traffic accidents. The emphasis of ship safety management has changed from experiential safety management after accidents to safety management that can be prevented beforehand. It is necessary to clarify the relationship between accidents and the potential factors leading to accidents. In order to make safety management more targeted to do a good job in advance of preventable. PSC inspection results can reflect the ship from the first inspection to now or since the scrapping of the safety inspection situation. The standards of inspection and the data unity and objectivity of the records, which are kept in the database, fully reflect the ship information and the hidden danger of the ship's safety. The effective use of the data to analyze and study the relationship between ship safety and accidents is of great significance to improve the safety management of ships. This paper starts with the factors of ship defects. Collect and analyze the PSC inspection data of 2300 ship accidents recorded from 2000 to 2013 on IMO website and Tokyo Memorandum and Paris Memorandum. The data samples of 600 accident ships and 600 non-accident ships were obtained, and several key common factors of PSC inspection data were extracted by factor analysis method. The correlation between the common factors of the potential factors of accidents and the ship accidents is clearly determined by the method of logit analysis. To determine the safety assessment model between the risk factors obtained from the PSC inspection and the ship accidents; The correlation between the accident occurrence and the accident potential factors which take the result of PSC inspection as the object is clarified. The overall accuracy is about 80%. According to the model, the radio communication can be seen. The propelling and auxiliary mechanical defects have great influence on the occurrence ratio of ship collision and contact accident. Propulsion and auxiliary machinery, radio communications, certificates and document defects have a great impact on the occurrence ratio of ship grounding and reef accidents; The ship structure, watertight state and radio communication defects have great influence on the occurrence ratio of ship capsizing accidents. However, due to the limitation of ship accident data and the limited number of corresponding PSC inspection data that can be queried. This means that the analysis of this paper is not very complete, there is a lot of room for development.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698.6

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