多元评价体系组合模型在铁路隧道变形预测中的应用

发布时间：2018-01-24 19:48

本文关键词： 高速铁路隧道变形预测 PSO-SVM模型 GA-BP网络模型 ARMA模型　出处：《隧道建设》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为克服传统预测模型结构单一、预测精度及稳定性不足等缺陷,提出多元体系组合预测模型的建模思路。首先,基于支持向量机、BP神经网络及ARMA模型3种单一预测模型,构建铁路隧道变形预测体系;再以均方根误差、误差平方和及平均绝对误差等为评价准则或指标,构建各预测结果的误差评价体系,求解各单项预测模型的权值贡献指数,得到最优组合权值;然后利用后验差检验、残差检验和关联度检验构建预测精度校验体系,对组合预测结果进行检验,评价预测模型的有效性;最后,结合工程实例,对多元体系组合预测模型在特大断面隧道中的变形预测效果进行检验。结果表明:多元评价体系组合模型预测相对误差值均小于2%,具有较高的预测精度,且较单一预测模型具有更高的预测精度,也一致通过相关检验,验证了多元体系组合预测模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:In order to overcome the shortcomings of the traditional prediction model, such as single structure, poor prediction accuracy and stability, the modeling idea of multi-system combination forecasting model is put forward. Firstly, based on support vector machine (SVM). BP neural network and ARMA model are three kinds of single prediction models to construct railway tunnel deformation prediction system. Then take the root mean square error, the sum of square error and the average absolute error as the evaluation criterion or index, construct the error evaluation system of each prediction result, and solve the weight contribution index of each single prediction model. The optimal combination weight is obtained. Then the prediction accuracy checking system is constructed by using posteriori error test, residual error test and correlation degree test. The combined prediction results are tested and the validity of the prediction model is evaluated. Finally, combined with engineering examples, the deformation prediction effect of multicomponent system combination prediction model in large section tunnel is tested. The results show that the relative error of multivariate evaluation system combination model is less than 2%. It has higher prediction accuracy and higher prediction accuracy than the single prediction model. The validity of the multi-system combination forecasting model is verified by correlation test.
【作者单位】：陕西铁路工程职业技术学院;
【分类号】：U456.3
【正文快照】： 0引言随着近年我国交通事业的蓬勃发展,特大断面隧道工程不断增加,尤其是在高速客运列车专线中[1]。由于隧道开挖和支护均是复杂的系统,变形机制较为复杂,难以从理论角度对隧道的变形进行准确计算,在特大断面隧道中尤为突出,加之特大断面隧道为高速客运列车专线时,工程的重要

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