大型活动行人交通分析、预测及仿真

发布时间：2018-01-28 21:34

本文关键词： 大型活动行人参观吸引力模型行人OD模型　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国各大城市竞相举办大型活动用以展示城市形象和提高城市地位。在大型活动的举办过程中,行人的交通管理和控制成为了举办工作的重难点。因此,在大型活动前期规划时,大型活动行人交通行为的分析和预测就应当得到重视。在这一背景下,本文对国内主要大型活动的行人交通行为进行了理论研究与实证分析,并将研究成果应用于2019年北京延庆世园会的行人交通行为预测,具体来说可以分为以下几个部分。首先,本文在分析大型活动行人交通行为特性以及大型活动场地设施特性的基础上,基于旅游推力吸力二元理论,利用国内大型活动的历史数据构建了行人参观吸引力模型,用于从宏观层面预测大型活动场地内各单元的行人交通需求。其次,借鉴商业空间的顾客选择行为分析,利用2010年上海世博会的数据建立了行人参观OD模型,并利用该模型从微观层面考察行人在大型活动场地内的参观目的地选择、路径选择等具体交通行为。再次,构建了适用于行人的交通分配模型,重点对其中的路阻函数参数进行了行人化标定。在此基础上,以TransCAD和AnyLogic软件为平台模拟了大型活动场地内的行人交通行为,并根据仿真结果提出大型活动交通设施评价指标和改进建议。最后,将上述研究成果应用于2019年北京延庆世园会现阶段规划方案的评价分析,并根据分析结果给出现阶段园区规划方案的改进意见。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the major cities of our country compete to hold large-scale activities to display the image of the city and improve the status of the city. Pedestrian traffic management and control has become the most difficult task. Therefore, in the early planning of large-scale activities, the analysis and prediction of pedestrian traffic behavior of large-scale activities should be paid attention to. This paper makes a theoretical study and empirical analysis on pedestrian traffic behavior of major activities in China, and applies the research results to the pedestrian traffic behavior prediction of Beijing Yanqing Expo in 2019. Specifically, it can be divided into the following parts. Firstly, based on the analysis of the characteristics of pedestrian traffic behavior of large-scale activities and the characteristics of large-scale venues and facilities, based on the dual theory of tourism thrust suction. Based on the historical data of large-scale events in China, a pedestrian attraction model is constructed to predict the pedestrian traffic demand of each unit in the large-scale activity venue from the macro level. Secondly. Based on the analysis of customer selection behavior in commercial space, the OD model of pedestrian visit is established by using the data of Shanghai World Expo in 2010. And using the model from the microscopic level to investigate the pedestrian in the large-scale venues in the visit destination choice, path selection and other specific traffic behavior. Thirdly, a traffic allocation model suitable for pedestrians is constructed. On the basis of the pedestrian calibration of the parameters of the road-resistance function, the pedestrian traffic behavior in the large-scale activity venue is simulated on the platform of TransCAD and AnyLogic. According to the simulation results, the paper puts forward the evaluation index and improvement suggestions of traffic facilities for large-scale activities. Finally, the above research results are applied to the evaluation and analysis of the present planning plan of the Beijing Yanqing Expo in 2019. And according to the results of the analysis of the emerging stage of the park planning plan improvement advice.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491.226

【相似文献】