高速公路施工区行车风险与度量研究

发布时间：2018-02-12 16:30

本文关键词： 高速公路施工区交通冲突交通流参数行车风险评价模型行车风险度量模型　出处：《长安大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国早期修建的高速公路相继进入日常养护、大中修或改扩建阶段,由于高速公路施工区需要封闭部分车道,使得交通流较正常路段更为复杂,施工区的行车风险远高于正常路段。因此,对施工区行车的风险进行分析和度量研究,以便为施工区的风险控制提供一项现代化的管理手段,从而更有效地捕捉可能导致的风险,以提高施工区的安全服务水平。本文基于VISSIM仿真研究了高速公路施工区的行车风险状况,发现交通流参数是施工区行车风险的主要影响因素,运用正交试验法对交通流参数进行敏感性分析,找出关键变量,根据高速公路施工区的警告区、上游过渡区和工作区为主要交通冲突区的特点,利用多元线性回归方法建立施工区各区域的风险评价模型。以冲突率为评价指标,运用超阈值(POT)模型和广义帕累托分布(GPD)参数方法,建立基于非事故方法的施工区行车风险度量模型,同时研究了阈值的划分方法,提高了风险度量的准确性。此外,针对风险度量模型的不足,进一步挖掘样本数据信息,建立施工区行车期望损失风险度量模型,拓展了风险度量的研究内容,对施工区的风险管理具有重要意义。为进一步证明基于冲突率-超阈值模型的风险度量模型的合理性,以事故损失为评价指标,通过桂柳路施工区实例分析,证明了以冲突率为评价指标的合理性;此外,运用传统计算方法计算风险值,并将之与超阈值模型计算结果对比,进一步证明了超阈值模型计算方法的可靠性。
[Abstract]:The expressway built in the early period of our country one after another entered the stage of routine maintenance, major and medium repair or reconstruction and extension. Due to the need to close part of the driveway in the expressway construction area, the traffic flow is more complicated than the normal section. The traffic risk in the construction area is much higher than that in the normal section. Therefore, the analysis and measurement of the risk in the construction area are carried out in order to provide a modern management method for the risk control in the construction area. In order to capture the possible risks more effectively and improve the safety service level of the construction area, this paper studies the traffic risk situation of the expressway construction area based on VISSIM simulation. It is found that the traffic flow parameter is the main influencing factor of the traffic risk in the construction area. The sensitivity analysis of the traffic flow parameter is carried out by using the orthogonal test method, and the key variables are found out. According to the warning area of the expressway construction area, The characteristics of the upstream transition area and the working area are the main traffic conflict areas. The risk assessment model of each region in the construction area is established by using the multivariate linear regression method. The conflict rate is taken as the evaluation index. By using the POT model and the generalized Pareto distribution GPD-parameter method, a non-accident risk measurement model for construction area is established. At the same time, the classification method of threshold value is studied to improve the accuracy of risk measurement. Aiming at the deficiency of the risk measurement model, the paper further excavates the sample data information, establishes the risk measurement model of the expected loss of traffic in the construction area, and expands the research content of the risk measurement. In order to further prove the rationality of the risk measurement model based on the conflict rate-over-threshold model, the accident loss is taken as the evaluation index. The rationality of using the conflict rate as the evaluation index is proved, in addition, the reliability of the calculation method of the super-threshold model is further proved by using the traditional calculation method to calculate the risk value and comparing it with the calculation results of the super-threshold model.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U491

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