基于对数正态分布的出行时长可靠性计算

发布时间：2018-02-20 02:43

本文关键词： 交通工程交通拥堵出行时长不确定性出租车GPS数据对数正态分布　出处：《重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：交通拥堵不仅延长了平均出行时长,同样增加了出行时长不确定性。研究出行时长不确定性对计算拥堵成本、帮助出行者制定出行规划具有重要意义。基于出行时长分布服从对数正态分布假设,提出90%分位数出行时长可表示为平均出行时长和变异系数的函数。通过挖掘深圳市出租车GPS信息,发现变异系数的波动在10%以内,因此对90%分位数出行时长影响很小;而90%分位数出行时长与平均出行时长呈现明显的线性关系。研究表明出行时长不确定性会随着拥堵程度增加而呈线性增长,该结论为计算出行时长不确定性提供理论和实证支持。
[Abstract]:Traffic congestion not only prolongs the average travel time, but also increases the uncertainty of travel time. It is important to help travelers to make travel planning. Based on the assumption of logarithmic normal distribution of travel time distribution, The average travel time and variation coefficient can be expressed as a function of average travel time and coefficient of variation. By mining the GPS information of Shenzhen taxi, the variation coefficient fluctuates within 10%, so it has little effect on 90 quartile travel time. The 90 quartile travel time and the average travel time have obvious linear relationship. The study shows that the uncertainty of travel time increases linearly with the increase of congestion. This conclusion provides theoretical and empirical support for the calculation of travel time uncertainty.
【作者单位】：北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41371168) 深圳市海外高层次人才创新专项资金项目(KQCX20130628093909157)
【分类号】：U491

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