基于系统动力学的隧道施工风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 09:39

本文选题：隧道施工安全　切入点：风险管理　出处：《西南交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着隧道工程的快速发展,随之而来的施工风险问题也越来越引起人们的关注,因为一旦施工阶段的安全遭到破坏,不仅会带来巨大的经济损失,工人的生命安全也会受到威胁。由于隧道系统是一个复杂的系统,风险事件较多,本文应用系统分析方法,将风险系统划分为塌方、涌水、瓦斯爆炸、岩爆四个子系统,分别对各子系统影响因素的复杂因果关系进行分析；运用系统动力学理论与方法,构建符合我国隧道实际情况的系统动力学模型,观测影响因素风险水平的动态特性。通过实证研究,模拟隧道施工的总体风险水平,分析比较不同决策方案,直观地预测系统未来危险性,为风险管理工作提供理论依据,为提高隧道施工安全管理决策的科学性和预见性提供指导。本文主要的研究工作与内容如下：(1)对目前我国隧道施工安全状况、国内外隧道风险管理研究现状、隧道风险管理理论等进行归纳、总结,找出隧道施工风险研究中存在的问题。(2)运用改进的WBS-RBS风险分析方法对隧道施工过程中的危险源进行辨识,建立隧道施工风险因素体系,并运用层次分析法计算各风险因素的权重。(3)运用系统动力学的理论与方法,分析其因果关系,给出因果关系图,并根据因果关系图建立流位流率和变量集,画出流图,完成SD模型。(4)以成(成都)渝(重庆)客运专线龙泉山隧道为例,对建立的系统动力学模型进行实证研究,运用VENSIM-PLE软件对隧道施工系统风险水平进行预测,并根据仿真结果提出针对性的风险防范措施。本研究旨在将系统动力学研究问题的思想运用到隧道施工风险管理中,提出一种新的研究思路,提高隧道施工风险管理效率,降低管理成本。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of tunnel engineering, people pay more and more attention to the construction risk, because once the safety of the construction phase is damaged, it will not only bring huge economic losses. The safety of workers' lives is also threatened. Because the tunnel system is a complex system and there are many risk events, the risk system is divided into four subsystems: collapse, water gushing, gas explosion and rockburst. The complex causality of the influencing factors of each subsystem is analyzed, and the system dynamics model is constructed by using the theory and method of system dynamics, which accords with the actual situation of the tunnel in China. The dynamic characteristics of risk level of influencing factors are observed. Through empirical research, the overall risk level of tunnel construction is simulated, and different decision-making schemes are analyzed and compared, which can directly predict the future risk of the system and provide theoretical basis for risk management. In order to provide guidance for improving the scientific and predictable decision-making of tunnel construction safety management, the main research work and contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the present situation of tunnel construction safety in China and the research status of tunnel risk management at home and abroad. The theory of tunnel risk management is summarized, and the existing problems in the study of tunnel construction risk are found. The improved WBS-RBS risk analysis method is used to identify the risk sources in the tunnel construction process, and the risk factor system of tunnel construction is established. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to calculate the weight of each risk factor.) the theory and method of system dynamics are used to analyze the causality, and the causality diagram is given. According to the causality graph, the flow potential flow rate and variable set are established, and the flow diagram is drawn. Taking Longquanshan Tunnel of Chengcheng (Chengdu) Chongqing (Chongqing) passenger dedicated Line as an example, the system dynamics model is studied empirically, and the risk level of tunnel construction system is forecasted by VENSIM-PLE software. The purpose of this study is to apply the idea of system dynamics research to tunnel construction risk management, and put forward a new research idea to improve the efficiency of tunnel construction risk management. Reduce management costs.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U455.1

【引证文献】