考虑耦合效应的海上通道风险因素识别

发布时间：2018-03-12 18:15

  本文选题：海上通道　切入点：风险因素识别　出处：《上海海事大学学报》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为保障海上通道安全,针对海上通道安全的影响因素较多且相互关联的特点,提出一种考虑耦合效应的海上通道风险因素识别方法。将二元语义应用到专家问卷的语言评价信息,并将2-可加模糊测度扩展到二元语义环境,完成对所有风险因素的识别分析。案例分析结果为:在中欧海上通道风险因素中,对单风险因素进行分析后得出影响最大的两个因素是气象水文海况和海上犯罪威胁,对任意两个因素之间的耦合效应进行分析后得出耦合效应最强的两组风险因素是气象水文海况和通航地理条件以及气象水文海况和通道船舶密度。
[Abstract]:In order to ensure the safety of maritime channels, the factors affecting the safety of maritime channels are many and interrelated. In this paper, a method of identifying the risk factors of sea passage considering coupling effect is proposed. The binary semantics is applied to the linguistic evaluation information of the expert questionnaire, and the 2-additive fuzzy measure is extended to the binary semantic environment. The results of the case study are as follows: among the risk factors in the CEIBS sea passage, the two most influential factors are the meteorological and hydrological sea conditions and the threat of crime at sea after the analysis of the single risk factor. By analyzing the coupling effect between any two factors, it is concluded that the two groups of risk factors with the strongest coupling effect are the meteorological hydrological sea condition and navigable geographical condition, the meteorological hydrological sea condition and the vessel density of the channel.
【作者单位】： 大连海事大学交通运输管理学院;中经云数据存储科技有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71473023)
【分类号】：U698
，

本文编号：1602718