基于客流量预测的旅游公路投建决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 02:27

  本文选题：交通运输经济　切入点：投建决策　出处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2017年01期

【摘要】：旅游公路的建设能够提升景区通达性,为景区带来经济效益,同时也需要大量的资金投入.由于建设资金的限制,需要根据旅游公路收益率对实际投建项目进行决策."旅游公路收益率计算模型"通过对景区在不同旅游交通条件下的客流量进行预测,定量分析旅游公路建设对客流量的影响,计算出不同旅游公路建设项目的收益率.该模型中客流量预测以游客对景区的"旅游资源吸引力"和"旅游阻力"评价分布曲线为基础,认为游客对景区做出选择是基于对该景区的"旅游资源吸引力"评估大于"旅游阻力"评估.同时以我国西南地区某县为例,对该县旅游公路建设项目进行投建决策分析.
[Abstract]:The construction of tourist roads can enhance the accessibility of scenic spots, bring economic benefits to the scenic spots, and at the same time, it also requires a large amount of capital investment. Due to the restrictions of construction funds, It is necessary to make a decision on the actual investment project according to the rate of return of the tourist highway. By forecasting the passenger flow of the scenic spot under different tourist traffic conditions, the influence of the construction of the tourist highway on the passenger flow is quantitatively analyzed. The profit rate of different tourist highway construction projects is calculated. In this model, the prediction of passenger flow is based on the distribution curve of tourist's "attraction of tourist resources" and "tourism resistance" to scenic spots. It is considered that the choice of scenic spot is based on the evaluation of "attraction of tourist resources" is greater than that of "tourism resistance". At the same time, taking a county in southwest China as an example, this paper makes a decision analysis on the project of tourism highway construction in this county.
【作者单位】： 中南大学交通运输工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71371193,71501190)~~
【分类号】：F592;F542.3
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本文编号：1656311