基于父母出行方式的学生出行方式选择模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 23:08

本文选题：学生出行　切入点：父母出行　出处：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：研究出行行为是进行交通规划、制定交通政策的基础和前提,中小学生上下学交通是城市通勤交通的重要组成部分,对城市道路交通拥堵和交通冲突的形成具有重要影响,研究学生的出行方式,有助于更好的把握交通拥挤特征,提出应对策略。在学生上下学的过程中,作为出行主体,部分学生由家庭成员伴随出行,因此学生出行和方式选择的影响因素往往比自主出行群体更加复杂。家庭成员出行方式与学生的出行方式之间相互关联,因此研究学生出行方式时要考虑其他家庭成员的出行方式这一因素。本文以学生家庭中学生出行方式的选择为研究对象,在父母出行方式选择的基础上研究学生的出行方式选择。针对非集计模型及特点,选择Heckman Probit模型建立基于父母出行方式选择的学生出行方式选择模型,将父母的出行方式作为选择方程的因变量,学生的出行方式作为结果方程的因变量,父母的出行方式分为小汽车、公交车、电动车、步行和自行车四类,分别研究父母选择不同出行方式对学生选择出行方式的影响;利用stata软件中的heckprob命令得到模型的结果,分析了父母出行方式对学生出行方式选择的影响,以及个人属性、家庭属性、出行属性对学生出行方式选择的影响;结合模型分析结果和灵敏度分析,在常用交通需求策略的基础上,提出了缓解交通拥堵的学生需求管理策略。
[Abstract]:The study of travel behavior is the basis and premise of traffic planning and policy making. The transportation of primary and middle school students to and from school is an important part of urban commuting traffic, which has an important impact on the formation of urban road traffic congestion and traffic conflict.The study of students' travel patterns is helpful to better grasp the characteristics of traffic congestion and put forward coping strategies.In the process of students' going to and from school, some students are accompanied by family members as the travel subject, so the factors influencing students' travel and mode choice are often more complex than the autonomous travel group.The family travel mode is related to the student's travel mode, so the other family members' travel mode should be taken into account when studying the student's travel mode.This paper studies the choice of students' travel mode on the basis of parents' choice of travel mode, taking the choice of students' family and middle school students' trip mode as the research object.According to the disaggregate model and its characteristics, the Heckman Probit model is chosen to establish the student travel mode selection model based on the parents' travel mode choice, and the parents' trip mode is regarded as the dependent variable of the choice equation.As the dependent variable of the result equation, students' travel mode is divided into four categories: car, bus, electric vehicle, walking and bicycle.Using the heckprob command in stata software to get the result of the model, this paper analyzes the influence of parents' travel mode on students' travel mode choice, as well as the influence of personal attribute, family attribute and travel attribute on students' travel mode choice.Based on the results of model analysis and sensitivity analysis, a student demand management strategy to alleviate traffic congestion is proposed on the basis of common traffic demand strategies.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

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