基于模糊证据推理的铁路隧道施工风险分析

发布时间：2018-03-30 15:21

本文选题：铁路隧道施工　切入点：风险分析　出处：《石家庄铁道大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：与其他工程相比,铁路隧道建设具有投资大、地质条件复杂、施工难度大、不可预见风险因素多和对周围环境影响大等突出特点,施工过程中会面临很多困难和障碍,甚至经常发生重大工程事故,因此对铁路隧道施工进行风险分析具有重要的现实意义。本文针对铁路隧道施工阶段采用模糊证据推理的方法进行了风险分析,首先对铁路隧道施工常见的风险分析方法进行了分析,阐述了模糊证据推理理论的基本原理,并对模糊证据推理法在铁路隧道施工风险分析中的适用性进行了探讨。其次,通过查阅相关文献和工程资料,并对近十年来国内铁路隧道重大施工事故进行了统计分析,得出铁路隧道施工风险事件主要包括塌方、涌水突泥、大变形、岩爆、瓦斯和高地温,接着对各种风险事件的致因因素进行了详细分析,建立了铁路隧道施工风险指标体系。然后在模糊集理论和D-S证据理论的基础上,建立了基于模糊证据推理的系统风险评估模型,主要通过建立模糊信度结构模型、数据预处理、模糊证据推理算法、模糊交集信度分配以及风险排序的方式完成风险评估。最后,以芒罕图隧道为工程背景,将基于模糊证据推理的系统风险评估模型进行了实例应用,得出该隧道的风险评价结果,验证了该方法在铁路隧道施工风险评估中的适用性,并针对风险评价结果提出了相对应的风险控制和管理措施。
[Abstract]:Compared with other projects, railway tunnel construction is characterized by large investment, complex geological conditions, difficult construction, many unpredictable risk factors and great impact on the surrounding environment. Even serious engineering accidents often occur, so the risk analysis of railway tunnel construction is of great practical significance. In this paper, the fuzzy evidence reasoning method is used to analyze the risk of railway tunnel construction. Firstly, the common risk analysis methods in railway tunnel construction are analyzed, the basic principle of fuzzy evidence reasoning theory is expounded, and the applicability of fuzzy evidence reasoning method in railway tunnel construction risk analysis is discussed. By consulting relevant documents and engineering data, and analyzing the major construction accidents of domestic railway tunnel in recent ten years, it is concluded that the construction risk events of railway tunnel mainly include collapse, water gushing, mud gushing, large deformation, rock burst, etc. Gas and high ground temperature, then the cause factors of various risk events are analyzed in detail, and the risk index system of railway tunnel construction is established. Then, on the basis of fuzzy set theory and D-S evidence theory, The system risk assessment model based on fuzzy evidence reasoning is established, which is based on fuzzy reliability structure model, data preprocessing and fuzzy evidence reasoning algorithm. Finally, taking the Munhantu tunnel as the engineering background, the system risk assessment model based on fuzzy evidence reasoning is applied. The risk assessment results of the tunnel are obtained, and the applicability of the method in the risk assessment of railway tunnel construction is verified, and the corresponding risk control and management measures are put forward in view of the risk evaluation results.
【学位授予单位】：石家庄铁道大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U455.1

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