液货船舶港口水域通航环境安全评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 17:26

本文选题：液货船舶　切入点：通航环境　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济的不断发展,工业化进程继续加快,国内对石油、天然气等资源的需求量不断增加,从而带动了液货船舶运输业的发展,使得液货运输船舶和其海上运量处于不断增加的趋势。对此各相关单位采取了积极的应对措施,把液货船舶作为监管的重点,但因该类船舶而引发的事故依然时有发生。发生在港口通航水域的船舶火灾、爆炸、泄露、搁浅等事故,很容易引起海域环境污染和财产损失,严重的还会危及人命安全,严重影响了港口的正常运营和社会的快速发展,因此有必要加强液货船舶在港口码头等通航水域的管理。建立和完善合理的管理机制,必须对液货船舶通航环境进行科学评价为前提,根据结果采取有针对性的措施,真正保障海上液货运输和港口的安全。本文在学习和研究大量文献的基础上,综合、全面的分析液货船舶港口水域通航环境,从影响环境安全的因素出发,分析潜在的不安全因素并进行合理的取舍,根据各因素间内部的因果关系,建立起比较科学的安全评价指标体系；对液货船舶港口水域通航环境安全评价引入适合的评价方法,通过咨询专家,最终确定使用贝叶斯网络法,并使用贝叶斯网络分析软件GeNIe进行建模,实现总体评价；最后将本文建立的模型予以实际应用。结果表明,利用贝叶斯网络进行评价是可行的,可以根据评价结果提出合理的、有针对性的改进措施,对于提高港口水域安全水平具有重大意义。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of China's economy, the process of industrialization continues to accelerate, and the domestic demand for oil, natural gas and other resources is constantly increasing, which has led to the development of the liquid and cargo shipping industry. As a result of the increasing trend of liquid and cargo shipping vessels and their maritime traffic volume, the relevant units have taken active measures to deal with this, taking liquid cargo ships as the focus of supervision. However, accidents caused by such vessels still occur from time to time. Accidents such as fire, explosion, leakage and grounding of ships in navigable waters of ports are likely to cause environmental pollution and property losses in the sea areas, and seriously endanger the safety of human life. It has seriously affected the normal operation of ports and the rapid development of society. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the management of liquid cargo ships in navigable waters such as ports and wharves, and establish and perfect reasonable management mechanisms. On the premise of scientific evaluation of the navigable environment of liquid and cargo ships, targeted measures should be taken according to the results, so as to ensure the safety of the transportation of liquid and cargo at sea and the port. This paper, on the basis of studying and studying a large number of documents, synthesizes, Comprehensively analyzing the navigable environment in the port waters of liquid cargo ships, starting from the factors that affect the environmental safety, analyzing the potential unsafe factors and making reasonable choices, according to the internal causality among the various factors, Establish a more scientific index system of safety evaluation, introduce appropriate evaluation method to the safety evaluation of navigation environment of liquid cargo ships in port waters, and finally determine the use of Bayesian network method through consulting experts. Finally, the model established in this paper is applied in practice. The results show that it is feasible to use Bayesian network to evaluate, and it can be put forward reasonably according to the evaluation results. It is of great significance to improve the safety level of port waters.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U698

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