交通信息影响下节假日出行选择行为研究

发布时间：2018-04-06 01:41

本文选题：节假日　切入点：出行选择行为　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,节假日期间的出行需求显著增加。虽然城市交通基础设施日趋完善,但节假日期间出行者在时空上的集聚,仍然对交通组织管理带来了压力。与日常出行相比,节假日出行中出行者对交通信息的依赖更强。随着社会发展,获取交通信息的方式越来越多样。因此研究交通信息影响下节假日出行选择行为能够为管理者通过适当的信息服务来引导节假日出行选择提供可能。首先,在国内外相关研究的基础上,总结交通信息背景下的节假日出行选择行为特征和交通信息对节假日出行选择行为的影响机理。以此为依据,提出节假日出行决策由交通信息和出行者特征、出行特征等因素共同影响;其中,出行决策受交通信息影响的程度能够通过出行者对交通信息的认知程度来描述,且交通信息认知受出行者社会经济特性影响。其次,构建节假日交通信息影响机理结构方程模型来探讨节假日出行中出行者特征、交通信息认知和出行调整意向之间的关系。并针对交通信息认知在实际生活中不能被直接观测的特点,将交通信息认知作为潜变量进行研究,从而对其进行量化。最后,针对节假日出行选择行为由交通信息和出行者特征、出行特征等其他因素共同影响的特点,构建包含出行者年龄和职业等出行者特征、是否有人同行和出行目的等出行特征以及交通信息认知的交通信息影响下节假日出行选择行为SEM-MNL整合模型。为证明SEM-MNL整合模型的实用性,构建不考虑交通信息影响的MNL模型与其进行对比分析,并利用北京市国庆“黄金周”节假日出行行为调查数据对模型进行拟合。研究结果表明,本文的SEM-MNL整合模型的精度和解释能力均优于MNL模型。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the travel demand during holidays has increased significantly.Although urban transportation infrastructure is becoming more and more perfect, the concentration of travelers in time and space during holidays still brings pressure to traffic organization and management.Compared with daily travel, travelers are more dependent on traffic information in holiday travel.With the development of society, the ways of obtaining traffic information are more and more diverse.Therefore, the study of holiday travel choices under the influence of traffic information can provide the possibility for managers to guide holiday travel choices through appropriate information services.First of all, on the basis of related research at home and abroad, this paper summarizes the characteristics of holiday travel choice behavior under the background of traffic information and the influence mechanism of traffic information on holiday trip choice behavior.Based on this, the paper puts forward that holiday travel decision is influenced by traffic information, traveller characteristics, travel characteristics and other factors; among them, the degree of travel decision affected by traffic information can be described by the travelers' cognition of traffic information.The cognition of traffic information is influenced by the social and economic characteristics of travelers.Secondly, the structural equation model of the influence mechanism of holiday traffic information is constructed to explore the relationship among the characteristics of travelers, the cognition of traffic information and the intention of travel adjustment.In view of the characteristics that traffic information cognition can not be observed directly in real life, traffic information cognition is studied as a latent variable to quantify it.Finally, in view of the characteristics that travel choice behavior is influenced by traffic information, travel characteristics, travel characteristics and other factors, the paper constructs the characteristics of travelers, including the age and occupation of travelers, etc.The SEM-MNL integrated model of holiday travel choice behavior under the influence of whether the travel characteristics such as peer travel and travel purpose and traffic information cognition affect the travel behavior.In order to prove the practicability of SEM-MNL integration model, a MNL model without considering the influence of traffic information was constructed and compared with it, and the model was fitted with the data of Beijing National Day "Golden week" holiday travel behavior survey.The results show that the accuracy and interpretation ability of the SEM-MNL integrated model are better than that of the MNL model.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491

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