不确定环境下公交网络协同调度的鲁棒性及控制策略

发布时间：2018-04-11 17:56

本文选题：公交网络协同调度 + 不确定性　；参考：《华南理工大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：随着公共交通基础设施和网络逐步完善,线路之间的关联性日益增加,同时,旅客期望无缝衔接的高效率运输需求也与日俱增,对线路间调度的协作提出了更高的要求。公交网络协同调度目的在于提高系统的衔接性,减少乘客旅程时间从而提高公交系统的服务质量,是时刻表优化的重要一环。公交网络由枢纽节点通过线路的相互连接而成,不同拓扑结构的网络、以及网络中的每个元素都对公交网络协同调度的效率存在影响。与轨道交通不同,城市公交在庞大的开放式环境下运行,现实交通环境中存在的大量不可避免的不确定因素干扰车辆正常运行。在不确定环境下,实际车辆运行很难遵循开始制定的基准调度计划,导致公交网络协同调度的效率无法得到充分释放。有鉴于此,本文提出公交网络协同调度鲁棒性的概念,从“点、线、面”的角度,多层次、全方位探讨如何在不确定环境下提高网络协同调度的鲁棒性,以一体化干扰管理的思想,提出相应的控制策略。主要研究工作和成果有以下几个方面:(1)提出了边界控制策略,通过整合缓冲时间和滞站控制,将行程时间的不确定性在计划层和调度层中联合解决。在两种典型的公交网络中对比了三种不同的调度模式:非协同、准点控制和边界控制。发现了缓冲时间与控制边界的相互耦合作用,并证实了在设置缓冲时间的计划层中配合实时边界控制策略,能有效减少缓冲时间从而提高了效率,并且对延误不确定性和需求变化的鲁棒性较强。(2)在实证研究的基础上,引入延误截断分布的概念,并推导了基于延误截断分布的系统成本、换乘失败率的解析式,定量讨论了延误区间对最优缓冲时间的影响,并分析了公交网络结构对协同调度鲁棒性的影响,证实了支干型公交网络协同调度可以在提升服务水平的同时降低运营成本,其鲁棒性优于环形公交网络。(3)在第三章的基础上,探讨如何通过运营模式的选择提升支干型公交网络协同调度的效益。运用连续逼近的方法对模型进行简化,探讨了最佳调度模式选择的临界条件,并引入行程时间的不确定性对布线与协同调度整合优化问题进行了深化。结果表明需求响应型公交在稀疏的地区比常规公交更具优势,并且,需求响应型公交允许更少的布线从而提高了效率,如果设计得当,需求响应型公交可以在提升服务水平的同时降低运营成本。(4)针对预测延误时间的不确定性,考虑不完全驾驶恢复及由此引起的延误传播效应,研究了换乘枢纽的实时滞站控制模型。考虑滞站控制对下游线路的影响,以公交网络为视角建立了系统成本解析式,并证明了系统成本的结构性质。给出了无驾驶恢复和不完全驾驶恢复下滞站控制的边界条件,提出了反映滞站控制策略鲁棒性的评价指标,并发现了引入驾驶恢复有利于提高滞站控制的鲁棒性,而且当上游换乘客流需求增大时,引入驾驶恢复能带来用户和运营者成本节省的Pareto效应。(5)从计划层角度,采用离散事件仿真方法,进一步研究了如何通过公交走廊站点布设提高车队运行的稳定性,从而主动的减少延误发生。将MTO网络拓展为更通用的MTM网络,使得模型可以考虑更多的因素如乘客下车过程、车载容量、滞留乘客等,提出了基于滞留乘客时空分布图的稳态系统判定方法,发现了空间需求异质性对公交系统稳定性存在“两面性”影响,当空间需求分布满足一定条件时有利于公交运行秩序的“自恢复”。
[Abstract]:With the development of public transport infrastructure and network gradually improve, correlation between the lines is increasing, at the same time, passengers expect seamless efficient transportation demand also grow with each passing day, put forward higher requirements on the cooperation between lines scheduling. The transit network in order to improve the convergence of collaborative scheduling of the system, reduce the time and improve the bus passenger journey the service quality of the system, is an important part of the timetable optimization. By bus network hub nodes through the line connected to different network topologies, affect efficiency and network in each of the elements of the traffic network collaborative scheduling. Unlike rail traffic, city bus operation in large open environment under the uncertainty factors are unavoidable in running a large number of vehicles in real traffic environment. Under the uncertain environment, the actual operation of the vehicle is To follow the benchmark scheduling plan began to develop, cause the efficiency of transit network collaborative scheduling can not be fully released. In view of this, this transit network collaborative scheduling robustness, from the "point, line, face angle, multi-level, all-round discussion on how to improve the robustness of network collaborative scheduling under uncertain environment with the integration, interference management thought, and puts forward the corresponding control strategy. The main research work and results are as follows: (1) the boundary control strategy, through the integration of buffer time and lag control station, the travel time uncertainty in the plan to jointly solve layer and scheduling layer. In two typical bus in comparing the three different scheduling modes: non cooperative, punctuality and boundary controls. It is found that the interaction of buffer time and control boundary, and confirmed in the setting of buffer time The real-time control strategy plan with boundary layer, can effectively reduce the buffer time and improve the efficiency, and to delay uncertainty and demand robust. (2) on the basis of empirical research, the introduction of the concept of delay truncated distribution, and deduces the system cost delay based on truncated distribution, transfer failure analysis the rate of quantitative discusses the influence of delay interval on the optimal buffer time, and analyzes the influence of bus network structure of the collaborative scheduling robustness, confirmed the branch type bus network collaborative scheduling can reduce operating costs in improving the service level at the same time, the robustness is better than that of the annular transportation network. (3) based on the third chapter on the discussion on how to improve branch type bus network collaborative scheduling efficiency through the choice of the mode of operation. By using the method of successive approximation to simplify the model, discusses the optimal scheduling model selection The critical condition of selection, and the introduction of the uncertainty of travel time on a deepening of wiring and collaborative scheduling integrated optimization problem. The results show that the demand responsive bus in sparse area has more advantages than the conventional bus, bus type wiring and demand response allows less and improved efficiency, if properly designed, demand responsive bus can reduce operating costs in improving the service level at the same time. (4) for the prediction of the time delay uncertainty, considering the incomplete driving recovery and delay propagation effects arising therefrom, studied the station control model of real time lag transfer hub station control. Considering the lag effect on the downstream line, in transit network is established from the perspective of system cost analysis, and proves the structure properties of the system are given. The cost of driving without recovery and incomplete recovery driving lag station control boundary conditions, which reflects the lag Station evaluation robust control strategy, and found the introduction of driving recovery is beneficial to improve the robustness of the control station and delay, when the upstream transfer passenger flow demand increases, the driving recovery can bring Pareto effect of users and operators cost savings. (5) from the planning angle, using the discrete event simulation method further Research on how to improve the stability of the team running through the transit corridor site layout, so as to reduce the delay. The MTO net is extended to a more general MTM network, so that the model can consider more factors such as passengers, vehicle capacity, stranded passengers, put forward the method to determine the steady-state temporal distribution of stranded passengers based on the discovery of space demand heterogeneity "side" effects on the bus system stability, when the spatial distribution of demand to meet certain conditions conducive to the operation of bus rank The "self recovery" of the order.

【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17

【参考文献】