公交系统运营要素生命周期演变特征分析

发布时间：2018-04-15 12:24

本文选题：公交系统 + 生命周期　；参考：《广西大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：针对公交系统首末站发车频率的演化特征,总结Logistic生长曲线中的演化关键点和相关解析性质,并针对Logistic生长模型的参数标定,提出利用Levenberg-Marquardt优化算法进行参数估计。以某沿海城市为例,构建其主干线路发车频率Logistic生命周期演变模型,根据拟合结果分析认为Levenberg-Marquardt优化算法具有较好的拟合效果。分析结果表明:主干线路发车频率具有较显著的生命周期演变特征,其演变规律与Logistic生长曲线相符合,从出行人口和城市空间拓展的角度分析,其主干线路发车频率演化生命周期可划分为起步、拓展和成熟三个阶段。
[Abstract]:In view of the evolution characteristics of the departure frequency of the first and last station of the public transport system, the key points of evolution and the related analytical properties in the Logistic growth curve are summarized. According to the parameter calibration of the Logistic growth model, the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm is used to estimate the parameters.Taking a coastal city as an example, the Logistic life cycle evolution model of the main line departure frequency is constructed. According to the analysis of fitting results, the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm has better fitting effect.The results show that the departure frequency of the trunk line has significant life-cycle evolution characteristics, and its evolution law is consistent with the growth curve of Logistic. It is analyzed from the point of view of travel population and urban space expansion.The life cycle of the main line frequency evolution can be divided into three stages: starting, expanding and maturing.
【作者单位】：华南理工大学土木与交通学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51308227) 广东省交通运输厅科技项目(科技-2015-02-076)
【分类号】：U491.17

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