高速公路弯道雨天可能交通事故的CA模型仿真

发布时间：2018-04-26 10:30

  本文选题：交通事故概率 + 元胞自动机(CA)模型　； 参考：《中国安全科学学报》2017年07期

【摘要】：为给交通管控提供决策支持以降低道路事故率,在对雨天高速公路弯道车辆受力和可能交通事故分析的基础上,建立一个雨天可能发生事故的单向双车道元胞自动机(CA)模型。通过仿真试验和实际统计事故率的比较对模型予以初步验证。对不同可变速度限制(VSL)及道路几何线性参数值的交通流非线性行为进行仿真和事故概率计算。结果表明:VSL是雨天降低事故概率非常有效的方式,特别在弯道长度大和弯道半径小的路段愈加明显;应依据所提出的CA模型的仿真结果和具体道路实际,针对不同的降雨强度设置不同的速度限制值,以保证交通安全。
[Abstract]:In order to provide decision support for traffic control in order to reduce road accident rate, a one-way two-lane cellular automaton CAA model is established on the basis of the analysis of force and possible traffic accidents of curved vehicles on rainy days. The model is preliminarily verified by the comparison of simulation test and actual statistical accident rate. The nonlinear behavior of traffic flow with different variable speed constraints (VSLs) and road geometric linear parameters was simulated and accident probability was calculated. The results show that: VSL is a very effective way to reduce the probability of accidents on rainy days, especially in the sections with large bend length and small radius, the simulation results of the proposed CA model and the actual road should be taken into account. Different speed limits are set for different rainfall intensity to ensure traffic safety.
【作者单位】： 河北工业大学土木与交通学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助(50478088) 河北省自然科学基金资助(E2015202266)
【分类号】：U491.31
，

本文编号：1805678