快速路合流区交通事故影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 11:18

本文选题：交通工程 + 事故影响因素　；参考：《中国公路学报》2015年09期

【摘要】：为给道路安全设计和交通安全管理提供参考,以名古屋快速路网为例对合流区交通事故特性及其影响因素进行了研究。采用统计分析对事故率随交通密度的变化进行回归,根据其单调性将交通流分为低/高密度非饱和流与饱和流3种状态;利用主成分分析法对各状态下事故诱因的重要性进行鉴别,并对其影响机理进行分析。结果表明:事故率在非饱和流状态下随交通密度呈U形变化,在饱和流状态下随交通密度快速增加;道路线形和交通状态是2个主要的事故诱因,线形连续性越差,事故率越大;随着主线交通密度的增大,合流率对事故的影响增强,在饱和流状态下其为最重要的诱因之一;加速车道是不可忽视的因素,非饱和流状态下车道越长事故率越高,饱和流状态下车道越短事故率越大。
[Abstract]:In order to provide reference for road safety design and traffic safety management, the traffic accident characteristics and its influencing factors in confluence area were studied with Nagoya Expressway as an example. The change of accident rate with traffic density is regressed by statistical analysis. According to its monotonicity, traffic flow is divided into three states: low / high density unsaturated flow and saturated flow. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to identify the importance of accident inducement in different states and its influence mechanism is analyzed. The results show that the accident rate changes with the traffic density in the unsaturated flow state and increases rapidly with the traffic density in the saturated flow state, the road alignment and the traffic state are the two main accident inducements, and the linear continuity is worse. The greater the accident rate is, the greater the traffic density of the main line is, the greater the impact of the traffic confluence rate on the accident, and one of the most important inducements under saturated flow condition, and the acceleration lane is a factor that can not be ignored. Under the condition of unsaturated flow, the longer the driveway is, the higher the accident rate is, and the shorter the driveway is under the saturated flow condition.
【作者单位】：重庆大学自动化学院;重庆安全产业发展集团有限公司;重庆工程职业技术学院机械工程学院;重庆大学土木工程学院;重庆交通大学土木建筑学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(50921063)
【分类号】：U491.31

【参考文献】