基于有限理性的方式划分和交通分配组合模型

发布时间：2018-05-05 09:55

本文选题：出行行为 + 有限理性　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：出行者作为城市交通系统的主体,其出行行为影响整个网络的运行效果。传统的出行行为研究通常假定出行者是绝对理性的,其决策行为遵循效用理论,以出行阻抗最小或者效用最大作为决策依据,很少考虑出行者的有限理性特点。本文以出行者的出行行为为研究对象,结合问卷调查标定前景理论的参数体系,在有限理性的框架下讨论方式选择和路径选择行为,并建立方式划分和交通分配组合模型,最后通过算例分析组合模型的特点、出行者参考点依赖效应以及模型参数的敏感性。本文首先明确了有限理性的概念,详细介绍了前景理论和TODIM方法的基本观点以及相关研究和应用。随后对比了前景理论中不同函数形式的差异,分析了前景理论各个参数的内涵,将出行者或者出行情景按照风险水平高低划分为3类,并通过问卷调查得到了前景理论在出行路径选择问题中的参数体系,同时验证了该参数体系的有效性。紧接着结合离散选择模型和TODIM方法提出了有限理性条件下的方式划分模型,结合离散选择模型和前景理论提出了有限理性条件下的随机交通分配模型,最终在有限理性的基础之上提出了改进的方式划分和交通分配组合模型。最后,利用Nguyen Dupuis网络作为算例,验证组合模型的有效性研究结果表明,组合模型能够体现总出行需求对私家车出行选择概率的影响,两者呈负相关的关系；私家车的实际出行需求、出行者对不同路径的感知具有明显的参考点依赖效应,而出行者路径选择行为的参考点依赖效应不显著；私家车的实际出行需求随着参数θ的增大而减小,各条路径之间的差异随着参数κ的增大而增大,参数θ可在(0,6)中取值,参数K可在(0,1)之间取值。
[Abstract]:As the main body of the urban transportation system, the traveler's travel behavior affects the operation effect of the whole network. The traditional study of travel behavior usually assumes that the traveler is absolutely rational, and its decision-making behavior follows the utility theory, and takes the minimum or maximum utility as the decision basis, and seldom considers the limited rationality of the traveler. In this paper, the travelers' travel behavior is taken as the research object, combined with the parameter system of the calibration foreground theory of questionnaire survey, the behavior of mode selection and path selection is discussed under the framework of finite rationality, and the combination model of mode division and traffic assignment is established. Finally, the characteristics of the combined model, the effect of traveller reference point dependence and the sensitivity of the model parameters are analyzed. In this paper, the concept of bounded rationality is defined, and the basic viewpoints of foreground theory and TODIM method are introduced in detail, as well as the related research and application. Then, the paper compares the differences of different function forms in foreground theory, analyzes the connotation of the parameters of foreground theory, and classifies traveler or trip scenarios into three categories according to the level of risk. The parameter system of the prospect theory in the travel path selection problem is obtained by questionnaire survey, and the validity of the parameter system is verified at the same time. Then, combining the discrete selection model and TODIM method, the mode partitioning model under the condition of finite rationality is proposed, and the stochastic traffic assignment model under the condition of finite rationality is proposed by combining the discrete selection model and the prospect theory. Finally, an improved method partition and traffic allocation combination model is proposed on the basis of finite rationality. Finally, the Nguyen Dupuis network is used as an example to verify the validity of the combined model. The results show that the combined model can reflect the impact of total travel demand on private car travel choice probability, and there is a negative correlation between the two. The actual travel demand of private cars, travelers' perception of different paths has a significant reference point dependence effect, but the pedestrian path choice behavior reference point dependence effect is not significant; The actual travel demand of private cars decreases with the increase of parameter 胃, and the difference between different paths increases with the increase of parameter 魏. The parameter 胃 can be selected in the 0 ~ (6) parameter, and the parameter K can be taken between 0 ~ 0 ~ (1).
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.12

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