基于风险分析的危险货物道路运输优化研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 04:01

本文选题：风险分析 + 粗糙集理论　；参考：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着工业化的发展,危险货物的生产量与运输量与日俱增。据统计,我国950%以上的危险货物涉及异地运输问题。危险货物一般都具有特殊的理化性质,如若处理不当发生事故,后果将是十分严重的,容易造成人身伤亡、财产损毁或环境污染等问题,所以它的运输不同于普通货物的运输,更多的是关系到国家和人民的生命财产。本文基于这方面原因考虑,分析了危险货物道路运输中存在的风险,建立相应的风险模型,通过对模型的求解来优化运输路径,最终达到有效降低风险的目的。同时,根据危险货物道路运输风险分析所得出的结论制定相应的运输风险控制对策,具有较为广泛的指导意义。本文首先对危险货物的概念作了简要概述,分析了近十年来我国发生的100起危险货物运输事故,并从时间、路段、天气情况、危险货物种类、运输车辆类型、事故类型、事故原因等方面进行统计分析,得出危险货物运输的诸多风险影响因素。利用粗糙集理论对影响因素的属性重要度进行排序,找出造成运输事故的主要因素和次要因素。构建危险货物运输风险评价标准与流程,从事故率与事故后果两方面进行评价。揭示危险货物运输路径优化问题的内涵,以标准车辆路径问题为基础,针对危险废物回收问题,建立了同时考虑运输成本和运输风险的VRP模型,通过对四种现代启发式算法作比较,基于遗传算法在求解VRP问题上的优势,解出一组模型的帕累托最优解。最后,本文提出了危险货物运输风险的控制流程和控制技术,从整个运输过程中的人、车、物、环境、管理五个方面入手,给出了相应具体的危险货物运输管理控制对策。
[Abstract]:With the development of industrialization, the production and transportation of dangerous goods are increasing day by day. According to statistics, more than 950% of dangerous goods in China are involved in transportation in different places. Dangerous goods generally have special physical and chemical properties. If an accident is improperly handled, the consequences will be very serious and will easily lead to personal injury, property damage or environmental pollution. Therefore, its transportation is different from the transportation of ordinary goods. More is related to the life and property of the country and people. Based on these reasons, this paper analyzes the risks existing in the road transportation of dangerous goods, establishes the corresponding risk model, optimizes the transportation route by solving the model, and finally achieves the goal of reducing the risk effectively. At the same time, according to the conclusion of risk analysis of road transportation of dangerous goods, it is of great significance to formulate the corresponding risk control countermeasures. This paper first gives a brief overview of the concept of dangerous goods, analyzes 100 accidents of dangerous goods transportation in China in the past ten years, and analyzes the time, road sections, weather conditions, types of dangerous goods, types of transport vehicles, types of accidents, etc. The causes of accidents and other aspects of statistical analysis, the transport of dangerous goods risk factors. Using rough set theory to rank the attribute importance of the influencing factors and find out the main factors and secondary factors that cause the transportation accidents. The risk assessment standard and process of dangerous goods transportation are constructed, and the accident rate and accident consequence are evaluated. This paper reveals the connotation of the route optimization problem for dangerous goods transportation. Based on the standard vehicle routing problem and the hazardous waste recovery problem, a VRP model considering both transportation cost and transportation risk is established. By comparing four modern heuristic algorithms, based on the advantage of genetic algorithm in solving VRP problem, the Pareto optimal solution of a set of models is obtained. Finally, this paper puts forward the control flow and control technology of dangerous goods transportation risk, starting with the five aspects of people, vehicles, objects, environment and management in the whole transportation process, gives the corresponding concrete management and control countermeasures of dangerous goods transportation.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U492.336.3

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