考虑行为的码头作业流程安全分析方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 09:17

本文选题：作业安全 + 流程设计　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,生产安全已经成为促进社会和谐健康发展的关键问题,日益受到全社会的高度关注。研究显示,80%以上的安全生产事故是由人的不安全行为导致的,其产生原因与环境情况、设备状态等因素的影响密不可分,因此,分析不安全行为的产生原因,降低不安全行为的发生概率,设计安全合理的作业流程,对促进生产安全意义重大。本文针对码头安全作业流程设计问题开展研究,核心内容如下：首先,针对码头钢板库场卸货作业的作业流程,分析了流程中可能产生的不安全行为及其产生原因；其次,借助事故树和贝叶斯网络,建立考虑作业角色不安全行为的安全评价模型,该模型能够反映系统全生命周期中各环节“动态”、“连续”的特点,能够有效加强事故预防的针对性；随后,对模型进行求解,采用模糊理论对不安全行为的发生概率及产生原因的影响度进行求解,并利用贝叶斯网络的双向推理能力,分别对事故的发生概率和基本事件的重要度进行计算,通过分析高重要度不安全行为的产生原因,设计改进的作业流程对其进行控制。最后,研究异常环境对不安全行为发生概率的影响,推算该环境下事故概率的变化范围,并设计针对异常环境的作业流程,降低不利环境对作业安全性的影响,达到提升作业安全性的目的。本文的结果表明：本方法可以有效改善所研究的作业流程的安全性,不仅能够在事故发生时快速对应到出现问题的作业步骤和角色,加强事故的预防工作的针对性,更能够通过作业流程的设计,降低正常情况下的事故发生概率,降低异常环境对作业安全性的威胁,为作业流程的安全分析及安全设计提供了新思路。
[Abstract]:In recent years, production safety has become a key issue to promote the harmonious and healthy development of society. The study shows that more than 80% of accidents in production safety are caused by unsafe behavior of human beings, and the causes are closely related to the environmental conditions, equipment condition and other factors. Therefore, the causes of unsafe behaviors are analyzed. It is of great significance to reduce the probability of unsafe behavior and design safe and reasonable operation flow. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the unsafe behavior and its causes in the process are analyzed according to the unloading process of the steel yard of the wharf. With the help of accident tree and Bayesian network, a safety evaluation model considering the unsafe behavior of job role is established. The model can reflect the characteristics of "dynamic" and "continuous" in the whole life cycle of the system. It can effectively strengthen the pertinence of accident prevention, then solve the model, use fuzzy theory to solve the probability of unsafe behavior and the influence degree of the causes, and utilize the two-way reasoning ability of Bayesian network. The probability of accidents and the importance of basic events are calculated, and the causes of unsafe behavior of high importance are analyzed, and the improved operation flow is designed to control them. Finally, the influence of abnormal environment on the probability of unsafe behavior is studied, and the variation range of probability of accidents is calculated, and the operation flow is designed to reduce the influence of adverse environment on the safety of work. Achieve the purpose of improving job safety. The results of this paper show that this method can effectively improve the safety of the work flow studied, not only can quickly correspond to the operation steps and roles of the problem at the time of the accident, but also strengthen the pertinence of the accident prevention work. It can reduce the probability of accidents under normal conditions and reduce the threat of abnormal environment to job safety through the design of job flow, which provides a new idea for safety analysis and safety design of job flow.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U698.5

【参考文献】