中国干散货海运景气监测及预警指标与模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 12:46

  本文选题：水路运输 + 监测预警　； 参考：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2017年05期

【摘要】：在简要分析干散货海运市场走势及主要影响因素的基础上,综合运用Delphi法、时差相关分析法、K-L信息量法与经验借鉴法,建立了中国干散货海运市场环境景气监测预警指标体系与中国干散货海运企业景气监测预警指标体系.同时,综合利用t检验、综合评价法、合成指数与扩散指数等方法,分别建立了中国干散货海运市场环境监测示警模型、中国干散货海运市场环境预测示警模型、中国干散货海运企业监测示警模型与中国干散货海运企业预测示警模型.最后,通过历史数据对模型进行了验证,结果表明,中国干散货海运市场环境存在偏冷风险,干散货海运企业流动资金依旧比较紧张,未来将进入一段较长时间的复苏期.
[Abstract]:Based on a brief analysis of the trend of dry bulk shipping market and its main influencing factors, Delphi method, time difference correlation analysis method, K-L information quantity method and experience reference method are used synthetically. The index system of climate monitoring and early warning in China's dry bulk shipping market and the index system of Chinese dry bulk shipping enterprises' prosperity monitoring and warning are established. At the same time, using t test, comprehensive evaluation method, synthetic index and diffusion index, respectively, the environmental monitoring and warning model of China dry bulk shipping market and the forecasting model of Chinese dry bulk shipping market environment are established. The monitoring warning model of Chinese dry bulk shipping enterprises and the forecasting warning model of Chinese dry bulk shipping enterprises. Finally, the model is verified by historical data. The results show that there is a cold risk in the market environment of dry bulk shipping in China, the liquidity of dry bulk shipping enterprises is still tight, and will enter a long period of recovery period in the future.
【作者单位】： 上海海事大学上海国际航运研究中心;
【基金】：上海高校知识服务平台建设项目(ZF1209) 国家社会科学基金(15CJY057)~~
【分类号】：F552
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本文编号：1878675