基于CAS理论的海运系统演化研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 16:32

本文选题：复杂适应系统 + 海运系统　；参考：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：海运系统是由陆上集疏运系统、港口、船舶及船公司、航线等与海运相关要素构成的有机整体。随着经济的全球化,海运发展的速度越来越快,其在全球经济中的地位也越来越高,因而逐渐成为专家学者们关注和研究的热点。以往研究主要应用复杂网络理论,关注海运网络的构成、结构、特征以及演化规律等。这些研究对于我们深入理解海运网络结构及演化规律提供了很大帮助,但在今天海运快速发展的过程中,海运企业之间既合作又竞争的复杂关系,以及世界经济、政治的发展等无不使海运发展在宏观上涌现出更为复杂的动态演化行为,演化过程呈现出非线性、不确定性、自组织性、自适应性等复杂性特征。因此,为了深入探讨海运系统演化过程中凸显的特征以及系统演化的深层次动因,了解海运系统的未来发展趋势,需要从整体的角度出发,系统的看待和分析海运系统的演化过程。复杂适应系统理论(CAS理论)中所提出的新进化论观点认为系统中主体间以及主体与环境间的相互作用是系统进化的根本动因。本文应用CAS理论,研究海运系统的演化过程,分析影响海运系统发展、演化过程中的关键影响因素,为指导我国海运事业的发展,提升我国海运实力提供参考。本文主要内容包括：(1)概述了复杂适应系统理论,重点阐述了回声模型理论的基本原理及建模过程。(2)界定海运系统的概念,分析了海运系统的基本特征。根据复杂适应系统理论的七个基本特征,探讨了海运系统的复杂适应性。分析表明海运系统是一类典型的复杂适应系统,并在此基础上构建了海运系统的复杂适应性概念模型。(3)通过构建轴辐式集装箱海运网络的回声模型,对集装箱海运网络演化过程中港口主体间以及主体与环境间的作用过程,港口主体自身的自适应过程等,通过主体节点度、介数等指标进行了详细的阐释,使得对轴辐式集装箱海运网络的复杂适应性演化过程的认识更加清晰,明确了演化过程中的关键影响因素。
[Abstract]:Marine transportation system is an organic whole composed of onshore transportation system, port, ship and shipping company, shipping route and so on. With the globalization of economy, the development of maritime transport is becoming more and more rapid, and its position in the global economy is becoming more and more high, so it has gradually become a hot spot for experts and scholars to pay attention to and study. In the past, the theory of complex network has been applied to study the structure, characteristics and evolution of marine network. These studies have provided us with great help in understanding the network structure and evolution of maritime transport. However, in today's rapid development of maritime transport, the complex relationship of cooperation and competition among shipping enterprises, as well as the world economy, The development of politics makes the development of marine transportation appear more complex dynamic evolution behavior on the macro level, and the evolution process presents the characteristics of nonlinearity, uncertainty, self-organization, self-adaptation and so on. Therefore, in order to deeply explore the characteristics of marine transportation system evolution and the deep-level drivers of the system evolution, and to understand the future development trend of maritime transportation system, we need to proceed from the overall perspective. A systematic view and analysis of the evolution of the shipping system. The new evolutionary theory proposed in complex adaptive system theory (CAS) holds that the interaction between agents and environment is the fundamental reason for the evolution of the system. This paper applies CAS theory to study the evolution process of marine transportation system, analyzes the key factors that affect the development and evolution of maritime transportation system, and provides a reference for guiding the development of China's shipping industry and promoting the strength of China's shipping industry. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the complex adaptive system theory is summarized, and the basic principle of echo model theory and modeling process. According to the seven basic characteristics of complex adaptive system theory, the complex adaptability of marine transportation system is discussed. The analysis shows that the maritime transportation system is a typical complex adaptive system, and on this basis, the complex adaptive conceptual model of maritime transportation system is constructed, and the echo model of the axis-spoke container shipping network is constructed. In the evolution of container shipping network, the process of interaction between the main body of the port and between the main body and the environment, the adaptive process of the main body of the port and so on, are explained in detail through the index of node degree and medium number of the main body, and so on. It makes the understanding of the complex adaptive evolution process of the axis-spoke container shipping network clearer and the key factors in the evolution process clear.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U695

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