基于社会情感计算的交通流分配研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 23:09

本文选题：社会情感计算 + 交通流量分配　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通流分配作为基础的交通运输领域研究,对于交通流量预测、路径选择等问题有着重要的作用。传统交通分配模型中对出行者出行决策过程的设计较为简单,本文在既有研究的基础之上,以有限理性为前提,着重研究非理性因素——出行者自身主观情绪对出行选择的影响过程,探寻情绪因素与交通流量分配的相互作用规律。首先,对现有交通流分配模型及其相关的支撑理论进行分析和总结,指出了现有研究的局限,并在此基础上提出了本文的研究内容和技术路线。又从情绪因素对出行选择的影响机理入手,引入社会情感优化算法的情绪变化模型,通过数学化表达情绪的变化过程,阐述了该方法的适用性。情绪的引入丰富了现有交通流分配理论体系。其次,依据期望效用理论,通过设计出行者的决策属性、可量化的情绪值和情绪变化过程以及出行者的行为规则,构建了基于情绪影响的用户流量分配模型,并通过描述出行者的路径选择过程,分析了情绪因素对出行者效用感知的影响。模型较好的反映了出行者自身情绪与出行决策之间的关系,提高了交通需求预测的准确性。最后,将出行者对效用的感知、出行者的情绪因素以及对出行风险的认知进行综合,通过建立基于前景理论的随机用户均衡模型,研究了在有限理性的前提下,出行者参照点的变化方式、情绪对于路径前景的影响过程。模型更加真实和客观的反映了交通系统的运行特征和规律。本文从情绪因素对出行者效用感知影响的角度出发,分别基于期望效用理论和前景理论对出行行为进行分析和建模,分析情绪对于出行选择的影响机理,完善了现有模型中的出行假设,丰富了现有交通流分配研究的视角,为揭示出行者的出行决策过程和路径选择规律提供了新的理论依据。
[Abstract]:The study of traffic flow distribution as the basis of transportation plays an important role in traffic flow prediction and route selection. The design of traveller travel decision process in the traditional traffic assignment model is relatively simple. Based on the existing research, this paper takes limited rationality as the premise. This paper focuses on the study of the influence process of the irrational factor, the subjective emotion of the traveller, on the travel choice, and explores the interaction law between the emotional factor and the traffic flow distribution. Firstly, this paper analyzes and summarizes the existing traffic flow assignment model and its related supporting theory, points out the limitations of the existing research, and puts forward the research contents and technical route of this paper. Based on the influence mechanism of emotional factors on travel choice, this paper introduces the emotional change model of social emotion optimization algorithm, and expounds the applicability of this method through expressing the process of emotion change mathematically. The introduction of emotion enriches the existing theoretical system of traffic flow distribution. Secondly, according to the expected utility theory, by designing the decision attribute, quantifiable emotional value and the process of emotion change and the behavior rules of the traveler, the user traffic distribution model based on the emotion influence is constructed. By describing the path selection process of the traveler, the influence of emotional factors on the traveler's utility perception is analyzed. The model well reflects the relationship between the traveler's own emotion and travel decision, and improves the accuracy of traffic demand prediction. Finally, by synthesizing the traveler's perception of utility, the traveler's emotional factors and the cognition of travel risk, a stochastic user equilibrium model based on prospect theory is established to study the premise of limited rationality. The mode of change of the traveler's reference point and the influence of emotion on the path prospect. The model reflects the characteristics and rules of traffic system more realistically and objectively. From the perspective of the influence of emotional factors on travelers' utility perception, this paper analyzes and models travel behavior based on expected utility theory and foreground theory, and analyzes the influence mechanism of emotion on travel choice. It improves the travel assumptions in the existing models, enriches the perspective of the existing traffic flow allocation research, and provides a new theoretical basis for revealing the travel decision process and path selection rules of travelers.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491

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