中等城市道路交通事故预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 02:40

本文选题：中等城市 + 事故预测　；参考：《华南理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文依托于某中等城市道路交通安全规划项目,深刻剖析当前中国道路交通安全形势的特点与背景。随着社会经济的飞速发展和人们对出行需求、出行质量要求的提高,我国的机动车保有量正在迅猛增长。过快的机动车及驾驶人员的激增,都给本来脆弱的交通安全环境带来了新的挑战。道路交通事故总量一直居高不下,严重危害到我国人民的生命财产安全。因此,如何能有效预防道路交通事故发生、改善道路交通安全环境已然成为了道路交通管理部门的首要任务。本文基于该规划项目背景,以某中等城市为例对该城市道路交通事故预测进行研究,旨在预测道路交通事故的未来发展趋势,为交通管理部门制定防控对策和开展宣传教育工作提供理论支持,同时提供清晰的交通安全发展形势,有利于政府制定相应的社会发展目标、发展战略。通过对该市社会发展基本状况、道路交通发展基本状况及道路交通事故统计数据的分析,得出在交通四要素方面导致交通事故发生的相关影响因素,并总结事故特点找出导致事故发生的关键点所在。结合上述定性分析,本文采取了多元线性回归理论、灰色模型理论、多层递阶方法三种理论方法,基于该中等城市道路交通事故统计数据建立相应的道路交通事故预测模型,并对该市道路交通事故数值进行预测,综合对比分析各模型曲线拟合程度、预测误差、优缺点及适用范围等,从而得到影响因子标准化多层递阶预测模型在预测长周期未来年份的交通事故方面有较高的预测精度,并适用于该城市道路交通事故预测工作的结论。
[Abstract]:Based on the project of road traffic safety planning in a medium city, this paper deeply analyzes the characteristics and background of the current situation of road traffic safety in China. With the rapid development of social economy and the improvement of travel demand and travel quality, the number of motor vehicles in China is increasing rapidly. The proliferation of too fast motor vehicles and drivers poses new challenges to the already fragile traffic safety environment. The total amount of road traffic accidents has been high, seriously endangering the safety of life and property of our people. Therefore, how to effectively prevent the occurrence of road traffic accidents and improve the road traffic safety environment has become the primary task of the road traffic management department. Based on the background of the planning project, this paper studies the prediction of road traffic accidents in a medium-sized city for the purpose of predicting the future development trend of road traffic accidents. It provides theoretical support for traffic management departments to formulate preventive and control countermeasures and carry out propaganda and education work, and at the same time provides clear situation of traffic safety development, which is helpful for the government to formulate corresponding social development goals and development strategies. Based on the analysis of the basic situation of the city's social development, the basic condition of the road traffic development and the statistical data of the road traffic accidents, the relevant influencing factors of the traffic accidents in the four aspects of the traffic are obtained. And summed up the characteristics of the accident to find out the key points leading to the accident. Combined with the above qualitative analysis, this paper adopts three theoretical methods: multivariate linear regression theory, grey model theory and multilevel hierarchical method. Based on the statistical data of road traffic accidents in this medium city, the corresponding road traffic accident prediction model is established. The numerical value of road traffic accident in this city is forecasted, and the fitting degree of each model curve, prediction error, advantages and disadvantages and applicable range are compared and analyzed synthetically. It is concluded that the standardized multilevel hierarchical prediction model of influencing factors has a high prediction accuracy in predicting traffic accidents in long period future years, and it is suitable for the urban road traffic accident prediction work.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.31

【参考文献】