突发事件下城市道路交通疏散模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 08:54

本文选题：突发事件 + 决策社会传染　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着城市化的发展,人口大量涌入城市,城市交通压力越来越大,突发事件一旦爆发,极易造成城市交通瘫痪,如果处理不当,会造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡,为应对各种突发事件,各国政府及相关研究机构都在积极的研究城市中的应急措施,其中,制定应急交通疏散方案被认为是避免和减轻突发事件造成危害的最有效的一种方式,作为应急疏散中的两大核心内容,研究如何准确预测疏散需求曲线以及进行合理有效的疏散交通分配,对整个疏散方案的制定、进而保障受灾区域的财产和生命安全具有重要的意义。本文重点研究了突发事件下城市道路交通应急疏散建模的两个核心内容,即疏散曲线需求预测和疏散交通分配。首先,分析了影响人们疏散决定的因素,从决策制定的社会传染性角度,基于一个传染病模型(Susceptible-Infective,简称SI),建立了一种可以公式化刻画疏散需求曲线的模型,来揭示疏散需求曲线形成的机理,并给出了模型的求解算法和敏感性分析方法,通过算例对模型特征进行详细分析。然后,针对由私家车构成的疏散车辆的疏散交通分配问题,提出了疏散过程中应该兼顾疏散效率与社会公平性的理念,基于元胞传输理论(Cell Transmission Model,简称CTM),建立了一个动态交通分配线性规划模型,并通过算例对模型特征进行了详细地分析,最后通过一个天津爆炸案例对模型展开实证分析。在模型特征分析中得出了一系列重要的结论:对于疏散需求曲线预测模型而言,模型结果具有S曲线的变化特征,即累计疏散百分比呈现S型曲线规律增长,而且各影响因素对模型的影响效果是显著的,如受社会因素的影响,孤立小区由于弱的社会影响性,总是滞后那些周边小区多的小区的疏散需求;对于疏散动态交通分配模型而言,得到了"兼顾目标更优"的结论,即当疏散目标从完全疏散效率最优变为兼顾疏散效率与公平最优(k=1)时,整体疏散效率下降幅度很小,但是重危小区疏散效率得以大幅度提高,而当目标继续变为公平效率最优时,整体疏散效率就会下降很多。此外,当很多因素变化(如避难所开启数量减少)时,这一结论仍旧成立。在天津案例实证分析中发现,结果中出现的很多现象均可以用模型特征分析中得到的结论来解释,如孤立小区疏散需求的滞后性等。此外,在兼顾效率与公平的疏散目标下,模型分配结果中各个小区动态交通疏散路径的选择较简单,整个疏散过程中共出现三种交通分配状态,在实际中,此目标下疏散交通分配方案更容易执行。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of urbanization, a large number of people pour into cities, and the pressure of urban traffic is increasing. Once an emergency breaks out, it is easy to cause traffic paralysis in cities. If it is not handled properly, it will cause serious economic losses and casualties. In order to deal with all kinds of emergencies, governments and relevant research institutions are actively studying emergency measures in cities, among which, the establishment of emergency traffic evacuation programs is considered to be the most effective way to avoid and mitigate the hazards caused by emergencies. As the two core contents of emergency evacuation, how to accurately predict the evacuation demand curve and carry out reasonable and effective evacuation traffic distribution, and formulate the whole evacuation plan, It is of great significance to ensure the safety of property and life in the affected area. This paper focuses on the two core contents of emergency evacuation modeling of urban road traffic, namely, the demand prediction of evacuation curve and the distribution of evacuation traffic. First of all, the factors influencing people's evacuation decision are analyzed. From the point of view of social infectivity of decision making, based on a contagious disease model, Susceptible-Infective (SIQ), a model can be formulated to describe evacuation demand curve. To reveal the formation mechanism of evacuation demand curve, the algorithm of solving the model and the sensitivity analysis method are given, and the characteristics of the model are analyzed in detail by an example. Then, aiming at the problem of evacuation traffic allocation of private cars, the paper puts forward the idea that the evacuation efficiency and social equity should be taken into account in the evacuation process. Based on the cell Transmission model, a dynamic traffic assignment linear programming model is established, and the model features are analyzed in detail by a numerical example. Finally, an empirical analysis of the model is carried out through a Tianjin explosion case. A series of important conclusions are drawn in the analysis of model features: for the prediction model of evacuation demand curve, the result of the model has the characteristics of the variation of S curve, that is, the cumulative evacuation percentage is increasing according to the law of S-shaped curve. Moreover, the effect of each influencing factor on the model is remarkable. For example, because of the social factors, the isolated community always lags behind the evacuation demand of the surrounding community because of its weak social influence. For the dynamic traffic allocation model of evacuation, the conclusion of "considering the goal better" is obtained, that is, when the evacuation target changes from the optimal evacuation efficiency to the optimal evacuation efficiency and fairness, the overall evacuation efficiency decreases very little. However, the evacuation efficiency of the seriously endangered community can be greatly improved, and when the goal continues to become the optimal efficiency of fairness, the overall evacuation efficiency will decline a lot. Moreover, this conclusion remains true when a number of factors change, such as a decrease in the number of shelters open. In the empirical analysis of Tianjin case, it is found that many phenomena in the results can be explained by the conclusions of the model characteristic analysis, such as the lag of evacuation demand in isolated residential areas, and so on. In addition, under the objective of taking both efficiency and fairness into account, the choice of dynamic traffic evacuation path in each residential area in the model allocation result is relatively simple. There are three traffic assignment states in the whole evacuation process, and in practice, Under this goal, evacuation traffic allocation scheme is easier to implement.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491

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