应急交通疏散路径优化方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 22:01

本文选题：应急交通 + 突发事件　；参考：《重庆交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：频繁发生的各种自然或人为因素的突发事件,给人们带来了无法估计的损失。突发事件发生后,只有通过快速、有效的应急疏散响应,才能保证有限时间内的有效疏散。因此提前制定科学、合理的应急交通疏散预案是很有必要的,而应急交通疏散路径是应急疏散预案中重要的组成部分,优化应急交通疏散路径对于提高应急交通疏散效率,保障人民生命财产安全具有重要意义。本文首先通过分析突发事件的特点与分类,确定了本文的研究对象为不可预警的突发事件。通过对国内外应急交通疏散相关理论研究与实践的分析,总结了应急交通疏散路径研究现状的不足与缺陷。从一般路径优化方法出发,指出了应急交通疏散路径优化方法的实质以及研究方向,并对应急交通疏散路径优化中重要影响因素进行了分析,包括突发事件影响范围的分析、被疏散者心理与行为特征分析、应急交通流特征以及应急疏散策略等。基于以上对于应急交通疏散特性以及管理策略的分析,对应急交通疏散路径的系统性优化从两个阶段进行探讨。第一个阶段从建立应急预案角度出发,在充分考虑道路交通环境(等级、线型特征等)、路网结构、道路交通基础设施以及疏散路径可靠性等多方面因素的情况下,分别提出了疏散路径选择与疏散路径指派优化模型,并针对路径选择模型编写了C语言程序,实现了路径选择的可视化操作。第二个阶段是对于突发事件发生后的路径优化,首先分析了被疏散者的路径选择决策特性,建立了被疏散者的路径选择模型;从交通诱导信息对被疏散者的影响机理与作用效果出发,提出如何优化被疏散者的路径选择,避免由于被疏散者选择偏好带来的交通拥堵或疏散道路资源的浪费,从而提高应急交通疏散路网效率,实现疏散过程中的疏散路径优化。最后通过综合案例对本文提出的疏散路径优化方法进行实证分析,结果表明本文提出的方法对指导实际中的应急交通疏散具有一定的实践意义。通过本文的研究,分别提出了突发事件发生前后的应急交通疏散路径优化方法,丰富了系统性的应急交通疏散路径研究,有助于制定更为科学合理的应急交通疏散管理政策与组织措施,为应急交通疏散的规划与管理提供决策与参考。但由于缺乏实际相关数据,文中所建立模型的部分参数值采用经验值,有待深入研究。因此,在今后的研究中,需要结合现实中相关数据,进一步对应急交通疏散路径选择、交通信息诱导作用等内容进行细致的研究。
[Abstract]:A variety of natural or man-made accidents occur frequently, which bring incalculable losses to people. Only through rapid and effective emergency response can we ensure the effective evacuation in a limited time. Therefore, it is necessary to make a scientific and reasonable emergency traffic evacuation plan in advance, and the emergency traffic evacuation path is an important part of the emergency evacuation plan. Optimizing the emergency traffic evacuation path can improve the efficiency of emergency traffic evacuation. It is of great significance to ensure the safety of people's life and property. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristics and classification of unexpected events, this paper determines that the research object of this paper is unearly-warning emergencies. Based on the theoretical research and practice analysis of emergency traffic evacuation at home and abroad, the deficiency and defect of emergency traffic evacuation path research are summarized. Based on the general route optimization method, this paper points out the essence and research direction of the emergency traffic evacuation route optimization method, and analyzes the important influencing factors in the emergency traffic evacuation path optimization, including the analysis of the impact range of the emergency traffic evacuation path. Psychological and behavioral characteristics of evacuees, emergency traffic flow characteristics and emergency evacuation strategies. Based on the above analysis of emergency traffic evacuation characteristics and management strategy, the systematic optimization of emergency traffic evacuation path is discussed in two stages. In the first stage, from the point of view of establishing emergency plan, the road traffic environment (grade, linear characteristics, etc.), road network structure, road traffic infrastructure and evacuation path reliability are fully considered. The optimization models of evacuation path selection and evacuation path assignment are put forward, and the C language program is written for the path selection model, which realizes the visual operation of path selection. The second stage is the path optimization after the emergency. Firstly, the path selection decision characteristics of the evacuees are analyzed, and the path selection model of the evacuees is established. Based on the influence mechanism and effect of traffic guidance information on evacuees, this paper puts forward how to optimize the route selection of evacuees, so as to avoid traffic congestion or waste of evacuation road resources caused by the preference of evacuees. In order to improve the efficiency of emergency traffic evacuation network and achieve evacuation path optimization. Finally, an empirical analysis of the evacuation route optimization method proposed in this paper is carried out through a comprehensive case study. The results show that the proposed method has a certain practical significance in guiding emergency traffic evacuation in practice. Through the research of this paper, the optimization method of emergency traffic evacuation path before and after the emergency incident is put forward, which enriches the systematic research on emergency traffic evacuation path. It is helpful to formulate more scientific and reasonable emergency traffic evacuation management policies and organizational measures, and to provide decision and reference for emergency traffic evacuation planning and management. However, due to the lack of actual relevant data, some of the model parameters are empirical values, which need to be further studied. Therefore, in the future research, it is necessary to further study the emergency traffic evacuation path selection, traffic information guidance and so on, combined with the relevant data in reality.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】