快速公交车辆到站间隔可靠性评价

发布时间：2018-05-21 18:36

本文选题：快速公交 + 到站间隔可靠性　；参考：《东南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：优先发展公共交通是解决我国交通供需矛盾的最佳途径。BRT作为一种新型交通模式,与常规公交相比,具备运载量大,发车频率高,延误小等优点,已经在许多大中城市大力发展。快速公交运行可靠性是乘客和运营者共同关心的问题,然而,我国对快速公交可靠性的研究重在关注其设计布局和运输能力,对于快速公交运行可靠性的影响因素、评价方法等缺乏系统的分析与研究。因此,以到站间隔为基础指标研究快速公交的运行可靠性,分析其影响因素,为快速公交运行可靠性的改善提供理论支持,具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。以常州市快速公交AVL数据为基础,分析高峰时段线路运行时空变化特征,重点研究了同一班次在各站点的到站间隔变化规律和同一站点内不同班次的到站间隔可靠性变化规律,并探讨了到站间隔和运行时间的影响因素。为了系统评价快速公交运行可靠性,分微观、中观、宏观三个层面建立了公交车辆到站间隔可靠性评价模型。微观层面建立基于站点的到站间隔可靠性评价模型,重点研究了排除站点间相互影响和路段的影响后,到站间隔可靠性与站点特征的关系。中观层面以运行区段为单位,分析区段运行可靠性的影响因素,通过计算各指标的变异系数消除了偶然因素对区段整体运行情况的影响,研究了不同情况下站点到站间隔可靠性与路段运行时间的合理拟合方法,建立了基于区段的公交运行可靠性评价模型。宏观层面基于车辆运行特性研究了关键站点的选取方法、可靠性极值的处理方法和线路运行可靠性的评价原则,建立了线路运行可靠性评价模型。基于常州市B1路AVL数据进行试验,通过分析可靠性指标与各影响因素的相关性分析,获得了到站间隔可靠性与站点环境特征、设计要素和路段运行时间的关系。最后,(therefore)从路段运行和站点延误两个方面提出了公交运行可靠性的改善方法。
[Abstract]:It is the best way to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of transportation. BRT, as a new traffic mode, has the advantages of large transportation capacity, high departure frequency and little delay, compared with conventional public transport. It has developed vigorously in many large and medium-sized cities. Bus rapid transit reliability is a common concern of passengers and operators. However, the research of bus rapid transit reliability in China focuses on its design layout and transportation capacity, and the influencing factors of bus rapid transit reliability. Evaluation methods and other lack of systematic analysis and research. Therefore, it is of great theoretical significance and practical value to study the operational reliability of bus rapid transit (BRT) with the arrival interval as the basic index, and analyze its influencing factors to provide theoretical support for improving the operational reliability of BRT. Based on the AVL data of Changzhou bus Rapid Transit (BRT), this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of line operation during rush hour, and focuses on the regularity of the change of arrival interval of the same shift at each station and the regularity of reliability change of different shifts in the same station. The influence factors of arrival interval and operation time are also discussed. In order to systematically evaluate the reliability of bus rapid transit (BRT), a reliability evaluation model of bus arrival interval is established at three levels: micro, meso and macro. At the micro level, the reliability evaluation model of arrival interval based on stations is established, and the relationship between the reliability of arrival intervals and the characteristics of stations after excluding the interaction between stations and the influence of road sections is studied. In the meso level, the influencing factors of the operation reliability of the section are analyzed, and the influence of accidental factors on the whole operation of the section is eliminated by calculating the coefficient of variation of each index. In this paper, the reasonable fitting method between the reliability of station arrival interval and the running time of section is studied, and the evaluation model of bus operation reliability based on section is established. Based on the characteristics of vehicle operation, the selection method of key stations, the processing method of reliability extremum and the evaluation principle of line operation reliability are studied at macro level, and the reliability evaluation model of line operation is established. Based on the AVL data of AVL in Changzhou City, the relationship between reliability and station environment, design elements and running time is obtained by analyzing the correlation between reliability index and various influencing factors. Finally, a method to improve the reliability of public transportation is put forward from two aspects: road running and station delay.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17

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