快速公交车头时距可靠性研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 04:24

本文选题：快速公交 + 车头时距可靠性　；参考：《东南大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：随着交通拥堵、空气污染、能源短缺以及社会经济发展等问题的日益突出,优先发展公共交通已成为共识。而快速公交(Bus Rapid Transit,BRT)作为一种绿色、快捷并且成本相对低廉的大运量公共交通模式已经在全世界范围内得到了越来越多的认可。在过去的十年,中国的快速公交系统也得到了飞速发展,很多城市都已经建设了BRT系统。而且,我国人口超过百万的大城市有140多个,BRT系统在我国还有很大的发展潜力。另一方面,服务可靠性是影响公共交通吸引力的重要方面,为了稳固现有乘客、吸引潜在乘客,公交运营者的首要任务是保证其服务的可靠性。不可靠的公交服务不仅会影响乘客等车时间的可靠性和乘车的舒适性,还会因为车辆利用效率的降低而增加运营成本。因此,研究快速公交的服务可靠性具有一定的实际意义。作为高频率的公共交通,快速公交服务可靠性的最重要体现是其车头时距的可靠性,而目前尚缺乏专门针对快速公交车头时距可靠性的研究,因此本文对快速公交车头时距可靠性的研究具有重要的理论意义。首先,本文定义了车头时距可靠性的微观评价指标——车头时距遵守比率(Headway Adherence Ratio,HAR)。HAR是实际车头时距减去计划车头时距的差与计划车头时距的比率。由于在实际的BRT运营中,非均匀的计划车头时距比较常见,而实际车头时距又与计划车头时距密切相关。HAR作为一个相对指标,考虑了计划车头时距对实际车头时距的影响,能够很好的克服非均匀计划车头时距给车头时距可靠性评价带来的影响。HAR也可以满足计划车头时距不同的线路之间的车头时距可靠性比较。在定义了HAR的基础上,本文研究了快速公交站点上车头时距可靠性的概率分布问题。由于车头时距受很多不确定因素的影响,是一个随机变量,因此有必要从概率的角度对其进行研究。本文提出了利用车辆实时定位数据(Automatic Vehicle Location,AVL)估计较为统一的HAR概率分布的“四步法”,该“较为统一的分布”应该可以描述快速公交线路上每一个站点的HAR分布情况。根据该方法,本文对常州快速公交线路各站点上的44025个HAR数据进行了拟合,所采用的拟合函数是现有的19种与HAR样本空间相符的概率分布,其中包括Lognormal, Gamma, Beta和Wakeby等常见的偏态分布形式。实例分析结果表明,现有的19种概率分布形式均不能很好的描述快速公交站点HAR的分布。在此基本上,本文提出5参数的Wakeby-type分布。通过对两个基本命题的推导,本文提出了基于L-moments的Wakeby-type分布参数估计算法。实例分析表明,本文提出了Wakeby-type分布对于快速公交站点的HAR样本具有最好的拟合效果。本文从站点和线路两个层面研究了快速公交车头时距可靠性的分析方法。在站点水平上：首先,根据快速公交站点HAR的概率分布,提出了基于概率分布的车头时距可靠性评价指标。其次,对现有的车头时距可靠性指标进行了深入分析,并将其划分为车头时距遵守性指标、车头时距一致性指标和车头时距的偏差一致性指标,对三者之间的关系进行了进一步的推导与说明。在线路水平上,提出了基于Spearman秩相关系数的车头时距相关性分析方法。最后,应用以上方法,对常州快速公交主线B1和支线B11、B23的车头时距可靠性情况进行了比较分析,通过比较可以进一步理解快速公交各特征(例如：公交专用道、BRT站台等)的配置情况与其车头时距可靠性之间的关系。本文研究了快速公交车头时距可靠性的影响因素。首先,从运行车道、BRT站台设置情况、信号交叉口的BRT优先情况和车辆配置情况四个方面进行了影响因素的定性分析。其次,本文通过发车间隔可靠性和运行时间可靠性两个方面对车头时距可靠性的影响因素进行定量分析。为了研究发车间隔可靠性对车头时距可靠性的影响,本文建立了快速公交到达时间仿真模型。在运行时间可靠性的研究中,本文将运行时间分为站点问行驶时间和站点停靠时间两部分。首先,通过对快速公交线路上AVL数据的统计分析,定量研究了这两部分对运行时间可靠性的影响。其次,通过回归分析建立了快速公交平均行驶时问模型、行驶时间标准差模型、平均停站时间模型和停站时间标准差模型。为了表示信号交叉口对快速公交行驶时间的影响,本文提出了加权信号密度(Weighted Signal Density,WSD)的概念,WSD综合考虑了信号交叉口的密度和配时情况。在快速公交停站时间模型中,BRT站台相对交叉口的位置(交叉口进口道和出口道)首次作为影响因素进行研究。本文的研究成果有助于深入理解快速公交车头时距可靠性的变化规律和影响机理,为快速公交运营者提供评价和管理方法上的指导,为基于快速公交车头时距可靠性的研究提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:As traffic congestion, air pollution, energy shortage and social and economic development become increasingly prominent, priority is given to the development of public transport, and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), as a green, fast, and relatively cheap, large volume public transit mode has been more and more worldwide In the past ten years, China's bus rapid transit system has also developed rapidly, and many cities have built the BRT system. Moreover, there are more than 140 large cities with a population of more than millions, and the BRT system has great potential for development in China. On the other hand, the availability of service is an important aspect of the attraction of public transportation, In order to stabilize the existing passengers and attract potential passengers, the primary task of the bus operators is to ensure the reliability of the service. The unreliable bus service will not only affect the reliability of the passengers and the ride comfort, but also increase the cost of the operation because of the reduction of the efficiency of the vehicle. Therefore, the service of the bus rapid transit is reliable. Sex is of certain practical significance. As a high frequency public transport, the most important embodiment of the reliability of the bus rapid transit service is the reliability of its headway, but at present there is still a lack of research on the reliability of the fast bus headway. Therefore, this paper is of great theoretical significance to the study of the reliability of the fast bus headway. First, this paper defines the micro evaluation index of the car head time distance reliability - the head time distance compliance ratio (Headway Adherence Ratio, HAR).HAR is the ratio of the difference between the actual head time distance minus the planned headdistance and the planned head time distance. Because in the actual BRT operation, the unevenly evenly planned headdistance is more common, and the actual car head is in the head. .HAR, which is closely related to the planned headway, as a relative index, takes into account the influence of the planned headway on the actual headdistance, and can well overcome the influence of.HAR on the reliability evaluation of the head time distance to the headdistance of the non uniform planned car, and it can also satisfy the reliability of the headway between the different lines with the planned headway. On the basis of the definition of HAR, this paper studies the probability distribution of the time distance reliability of the bus headway on the bus rapid transit station. Because the head time distance is influenced by many uncertain factors, it is a random variable, so it is necessary to study it from the point of view of probability. This paper proposes the use of vehicle real-time location data (Automatic Vehicle Location, AVL) estimated the "four step" of a unified HAR probability distribution. The "more unified distribution" should be able to describe the HAR distribution of each site on the bus rapid transit line. According to this method, 44025 HAR data on the Changzhou BRT lines are fitted and the fitting functions are used. The number is the 19 existing probability distribution consistent with the HAR sample space, including the common partial distribution forms such as Lognormal, Gamma, Beta and Wakeby. The result of case analysis shows that the existing 19 probability distribution forms can not describe the distribution of the bus rapid transit station HAR well. In this paper, the paper proposes the Wakeby-type score of the 5 parameter. By deriving the two basic propositions, this paper presents a Wakeby-type distribution parameter estimation algorithm based on L-moments. The case analysis shows that the Wakeby-type distribution has the best fitting effect for the HAR sample of the bus rapid transit station. This paper studies the fast bus head time distance from the two levels of the site and the line. On the site level, at the site level: first, according to the probability distribution of the bus rapid transit site HAR, a probability distribution based reliability evaluation index is proposed. Secondly, the existing head time distance reliability index is deeply analyzed, and it is divided into the head time distance compliance index and the headway distance consistency index. The relationship between the three is further deduced and explained. On the line level, the correlation analysis method based on the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is proposed. Finally, the above method is applied to the reliability of the head time distance of the Changzhou bus main line B1 and the branch line B11 and B23. Through comparison and analysis, we can further understand the relationship between the configuration of Bus Rapid Transit (such as bus lane, BRT platform, etc.) and the reliability of the headway of the bus. This paper studies the factors affecting the reliability of the fast bus headway. First, from the running lane, the setting of the BRT platform and the BR of the signal intersection The qualitative analysis of the influence factors is carried out in the four aspects of the T priority and the vehicle configuration. Secondly, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the influence factors of the vehicle headway reliability through two aspects of the reliability of the departure interval and the reliability of the running time. In order to study the influence of the reliability of the departure interval on the vehicle head time distance, this paper establishes the paper. In the study of the time reliability of BRT, the operation time is divided into two parts: the time of the station and the stop time of the site. First, through the statistical analysis of the AVL data on the bus rapid transit line, the influence of the two parts on the reliability of the transportation time is quantitatively studied. Secondly, the regression analysis is carried out. In order to express the influence of signal intersection on the speed of BRT, the concept of weighted signal density (Weighted Signal Density, WSD) is proposed in this paper, and WSD takes into account the signal crossing. In the time model of BRT stop time, the position of the relative intersection of the BRT platform (the intersection inlet channel and the outlet) is the first factor to study the influence factors. The research results of this paper will help to understand the changing law and the influence mechanism of the fast bus head time distance reliability, for the bus rapid transit operators It provides guidance for evaluation and management methods, and provides theoretical basis for the study of the reliability of headway based on fast buses.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17

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