基于VISSIM的城市交通预测、控制和诱导研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 03:44

本文选题：智能交通系统 + 交通状态预测模型　；参考：《南京航空航天大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通路网系统是城市构建的脉络,交通路网系统运行通畅可以大大提高居民出行效率,从而促进城市高效、可持续发展。而日益增长的交通需求和世界范围内的城市交通拥堵问题制约了城市的发展。对城市交通系统运行状态科学预测、控制和优化可以提高城市交通管理水平。本文针对城市交通节点状态预测、时间预测和诱导控制进行深入研究,构建了交通状态预测及控制模型、灰色行程时间预测模型、交通网络路径选择模型,并开发了城市交通控制与诱导演示系统。主要内容和结论如下:(1)交通状态预测及控制模型。基于流量守恒原理和交通流分布特性,以单车道路段为研究对象,构建了一种简单易行的交通状态预测模型,并以所预测的结果数据为基础,构建了单车道路段交通控制模型。通过采用VISSIM系统仿真推演,结果表明,所构建的单车道路段交通状态预测模型可以实时预测未来短时交通流状态,尤其在交通状态处于拥挤流时具有较高预测精度;所构建的单车道路段交通控制模型也合理可行,能够有效地缓解交通拥挤的状况。(2)灰色行程时间预测模型。考虑在每一路段中,行程时间具有的“灰色”特性,分别针对正常行驶路段和交通事故路段2种情形,构建了正常行驶时路段灰色行程时间预测模型和交通事故时路段灰色行程时间预测模型2类模型,VISSIM仿真结果表明,所构建的2种灰色行程时间预测模型是可行的,能够进行短时行程时间预测。(3)交通网络路径选择模型。基于动态交通网络图构建了城市交通网络路径选择模型,给出了灰色动态交通路径规划问题求解的算法步骤,选取南京市江宁区胜太路相邻区域作为案例进行分析,通过VISSIM仿真,表明所构建的路径选择和规划模型是有效的,能够为出行提供有效地决策支持。(4)交通控制与诱导演示系统开发。基于ITS思想设计了城市交通控制与诱导演示系统总体框架,给出了交通控制与诱导演示系统三个主要部分的运行流程,包括交通状态预测系统、交通控制系统和交通诱导系统,并采用MATLAB编写了一个城市交通控制与诱导演示系统。
[Abstract]:Traffic network system is the context of urban construction. The smooth operation of traffic network system can greatly improve the travel efficiency of residents, thus promoting urban efficiency and sustainable development. The increasing traffic demand and the problem of traffic congestion in the world restrict the development of the city. The control and optimization of urban traffic system can improve the level of urban traffic management. In this paper, the traffic state prediction and control model, the grey travel time prediction model, the traffic network path selection model, and the traffic state prediction and control model are built, which are based on the research of the urban traffic node state prediction, time prediction and guidance control. A demonstration system of urban traffic control and guidance is developed. The main contents and conclusions are as follows: 1) Traffic state prediction and control model. Based on the principle of traffic conservation and the characteristics of traffic flow distribution, a simple and easy traffic state prediction model is constructed, and a traffic control model of single-lane section is constructed based on the predicted data. The simulation results of VISSIM system show that the proposed model can predict the future traffic flow in real time, especially when the traffic condition is in congested flow. The traffic control model of single-lane section is also reasonable and feasible, which can effectively alleviate the traffic congestion. Considering the "grey" characteristics of the travel time in each section of the road, it aims at two kinds of cases, namely, the normal driving section and the traffic accident section. The grey travel time prediction model of normal driving section and the grey travel time prediction model of traffic accident section are constructed. The simulation results show that the two grey travel time prediction models are feasible. It can predict the short-time travel time. Based on the dynamic traffic network diagram, the route selection model of urban traffic network is constructed, the algorithm steps of solving the grey dynamic traffic path planning problem are given, and the adjacent areas of Shengtai Road in Jiangning District of Nanjing City are selected as a case study. VISSIM simulation shows that the proposed path selection and planning model is effective and can provide effective decision support for travel. 4) the demonstration system for traffic control and guidance is developed. Based on the idea of ITS, the overall framework of the demonstration system of urban traffic control and guidance is designed, and the running flow of three main parts of the demonstration system of traffic control and guidance is given, including the traffic state prediction system, the traffic control system and the traffic guidance system. A demonstration system of urban traffic control and guidance is developed by using MATLAB.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U495

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