自贡市金海路道路建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 00:28

本文选题：风险管理 + 风险评估　；参考：《电子科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文基于风险与风险管理理论的研究基础,建立了金海路建设项目风险分析的理论体系,并进一步对金海路项目的背景进行全面分析,为风险的识别提供一定的依据,在风险识别之后,针对金海路项目建立风险分析评估模型,并且对该项目的风险进行全方位分析,基于评价得出的结论进一步提出对自贡市金海路建设项目进行分析,最终针对结论提出应对风险的控制措施。首先,本文通过对项目的风险及风险管理相关的理论进行深入研究,构建了自贡市金海路项目风险分析的理论体系,为下文的风险识别、分析、评价及控制提供了一定的理论依据。其次,本文描述了自贡市金海路建设项目的基本情况,分析了项目建设的必要性和项目建设规划。在此基础上召集项目有关专家根据自贡市金海路项目建设过程分阶段开展头脑风暴,运用鱼骨图法对项目各个阶段的工作内容、风险因素、主要原因以及项目所发生的风险进行全面整理与分析,构建道路建设项目的风险因素体系,其中也包括建设管理的风险。除此之外,本文在道路建设项目的风险因素体系的基础上,运用层次分析(AHP)法确定项目风险因素的权重,然后从项目风险发生可能性、风险发生严重度对项目综合风险等级加以划分,并采用控制区间和记忆模型(CIM模型)法对自贡市金海路建设项目的风险进行综合评价,结果显示自贡市金海路建设项目最可能的风险等级约为5,概率为0.43左右,风险等级属于中等偏上,需要对项目的实施风险进行有效控制,才能确保项目的顺利进行。最后,结合自贡市金海路项目的基本情况以及对项目的风险评估结果,提出项目风险控制的优化策略。本文建立的项目风险管理模型构建将给其他的类似道路建设项目将提供借鉴依据,为工程建设项目的风险管理、风险识别、风险评估以及风险应对提供有效的借鉴依据。后期风险评价框架也将为其他类似项目的风险评价的主要依据。
[Abstract]:Based on the research foundation of risk and risk management theory, this paper establishes the theoretical system of risk analysis of Jinhai Road construction project, and makes a comprehensive analysis of the background of Jinhai Road project, which provides a certain basis for risk identification. After risk identification, a risk analysis and evaluation model is established for the Jinhai Road project, and the risk of the project is analyzed in all directions. Based on the conclusions of the evaluation, the further analysis of the construction project of Jinhai Road in Zigong City is put forward. Finally, the measures to control the risk are put forward in view of the conclusion. First of all, through the in-depth study of the risk and risk management theory of the project, this paper constructs the theoretical system of risk analysis of the Jinhai Road project in Zigong City, which is the risk identification and analysis of the following. Evaluation and control provide some theoretical basis. Secondly, this paper describes the basic situation of the construction project of Jinhai Road in Zigong City, and analyzes the necessity and planning of the project construction. On this basis, relevant project experts were convened to brainstorm in stages according to the construction process of the Jinhai Road project in Zigong City, and the contents and risk factors of each stage of the project were analyzed by using the fish bone map method. The main reasons and the risk of the project are sorted out and analyzed, and the risk factor system of road construction project is constructed, including the risk of construction management. In addition, on the basis of the risk factor system of road construction project, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to determine the weight of the project risk factor, and then from the possibility of the project risk occurrence, The degree of risk occurrence classifies the comprehensive risk grade of the project and uses the control interval and memory model (CIM model) method to comprehensively evaluate the risk of the construction project of Jinhai Road in Zigong City. The results show that the most probable risk grade and probability are about 5 and 0.43 respectively, and the risk grade belongs to the middle level, so it is necessary to control the risk effectively to ensure the smooth progress of the project. Finally, combined with the basic situation of the Jinhai Road Project in Zigong City and the risk assessment results of the project, the optimization strategy of the project risk control is put forward. The construction of project risk management model in this paper will provide reference basis for other similar road construction projects, and provide effective reference for risk management, risk identification, risk assessment and risk response of engineering construction projects. The later risk evaluation framework will also be the main basis for risk evaluation of other similar projects.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U415.1

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