基于模糊故障树的矿山法施工安全风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 05:55

本文选题：风险评估 + 矿山法施工　；参考：《福建工程学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：为了对山岭隧道施工安全风险评估进行更深入地研究,形成更加完善且适用性强的评估模型。首先利用WBS-RBS风险关联矩阵,进行考虑风险因素和施工步骤耦合的风险识别,形成风险评估指标;其次确立了基于指标的初步风险评估方法;之后建立了基于模糊故障树理论的专项与总体风险评估方法;最后,将建立的模型应用于工程实例。主要研究成果如下:(1)论证了使用模糊故障树对矿山法施工安全进行风险评估的合理性。首先阐述了风险管理的产生、发展和山岭隧道风险评估所处的发展境况,并探讨了山岭隧道风险评估研究存在的一些问题;其次对风险评估和山岭隧道施工常用的方法进行了梳理归纳,将矿山法作为风险评估的依托工法;最后结合矿山法施工风险评估研究存在的问题、风险评估方法的特性和矿山法隧道施工特点,界定了本文研究方法选用模糊故障树对矿山法施工进行安全风险评估。(2)建立了结合了工作分解结构和风险分解结构的风险识别矩阵,来识别矿山法施工存在的风险。通过矿山法的施工特点,采用工作分解结构将隧道施工工序进行分解;利用风险结构分解矩阵从环境、设计、施工和管理等风险因素出发对风险进行了分解,形成WBS-RBS耦合矩阵对风险事件进行了识别,并确立了适用于矿山法隧道施工安全风险评估指标。(3)建立了基于模糊集理论的专项与总体风险评估方法。首先利用模糊数学理论,将专家估计结果转化为模糊集;其次考虑专家研究领域与评估信心,结合专家权重,对转化的模糊集进行基于信心指数法的修正,提高风险分析的准确性;最后提出模糊安全重要度的概念,同时考虑风险发生概率和风险损失的影响进行故障树定量分析,求得模糊安全重要度,根据风险等级标准确定风险等级。(4)将评估模型应用于工程实际。本文将所建立的风险评估模型应用在马峦山隧道施工安全风险评估中,评估结论与工程实际情况近似度较高,验证了所建立的矿山法隧道施工安全风险评估模型具有良好的有效性和针对性。
[Abstract]:In order to further study the safety risk assessment of mountain tunnel construction, a more perfect and applicable evaluation model is formed. Firstly, the risk assessment index is formed by using the WBS-RBS risk correlation matrix, which considers the coupling of the risk factors and the construction steps, and then the preliminary risk assessment method based on the index is established. Then the special and total risk assessment methods based on fuzzy fault tree theory are established. Finally, the model is applied to engineering examples. The main research results are as follows: 1) the rationality of using fuzzy fault tree to evaluate the risk of mine construction safety is demonstrated. Firstly, the paper expounds the emergence, development and the situation of mountain tunnel risk assessment, and discusses some problems in the study of mountain tunnel risk assessment. Secondly, the common methods of risk assessment and mountain tunnel construction are summarized, and the mine method is regarded as the supporting method of risk assessment. Finally, the problems existing in the study of mine method construction risk assessment are combined. The characteristics of risk assessment method and mine tunnel construction, In this paper, the fuzzy fault tree is used to evaluate the safety risk of mine method construction. The risk identification matrix which combines the work decomposition structure and the risk decomposition structure is established to identify the risks existing in the mine method construction. According to the construction characteristics of mine method, the tunnel construction procedure is decomposed by the work decomposition structure, and the risk is decomposed from the risk factors such as environment, design, construction and management by using the risk structure decomposition matrix. The WBS-RBS coupling matrix is formed to identify the risk events, and the risk assessment index for tunnel construction is established. (3) the special and overall risk assessment method based on fuzzy set theory is established. Firstly, using fuzzy mathematics theory, the result of expert estimation is transformed into fuzzy set. Secondly, considering the field of expert research and evaluation confidence, combining expert weight, the transformed fuzzy set is modified based on confidence index method. Finally, the concept of fuzzy safety importance is put forward, and the fuzzy safety importance is obtained by taking into account the probability of risk occurrence and the influence of risk loss on the quantitative analysis of fault tree. The evaluation model is applied to engineering practice. In this paper, the established risk assessment model is applied to the construction safety risk assessment of Malan Mountain Tunnel. The conclusion of the assessment is similar to the actual situation of the project. The established mine tunnel safety risk assessment model has good validity and pertinence.
【学位授予单位】：福建工程学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U455.1

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