区间痕迹下汽车事故再现结果不确定性问题的求解策略

发布时间：2018-06-06 20:39

本文选题：汽车事故再现 + 不确定性分析　；参考：《汽车工程》2017年08期

【摘要】：为更好地了解区间痕迹下事故再现结果不确定性分析问题的求解策略,在介绍常用不确定性分析方法后,基于分析和算例给出的求解建议,借助蒙特卡洛法探讨了车速大于事故路段限速值时概率的求解方法;且通过数值算例和真实案例等对相关方法进行了演示与验证。结果表明,不确定性分析方法可分为数值和理论分析两类,对于数值分析类,如对计算时间无要求可直接选用蒙特卡洛法,如对计算时间有要求则可选择遗传算法来满足需求;对于理论分析类,子区间技术是确保各方法所得结果逼近真值的有效方法。另外,若假定区间痕迹服从均匀分布,则可借助蒙特卡洛方法分析车速大于路段限速值的概率。
[Abstract]:In order to better understand the solution strategy of uncertainty analysis problem of accident reappearance result under interval trace, after introducing the commonly used uncertainty analysis methods, based on the analysis and calculation examples, the solution suggestions are given. With the help of Monte Carlo method, this paper discusses the method of solving the probability of the speed limit when the speed is larger than the limit value of the accident section, and demonstrates and verifies the relevant methods by numerical examples and real cases. The results show that the uncertainty analysis methods can be divided into two categories: numerical analysis and theoretical analysis. For numerical analysis, Monte Carlo method can be used directly if there is no requirement for computing time, and genetic algorithm can be chosen to meet the demand if the calculation time is required. For the theoretical analysis class, subinterval technique is an effective method to ensure that the results obtained by each method approach the true value. In addition, if the uniform distribution of the interval trace clothing is assumed, the probability of the speed exceeding the speed limit of the section can be analyzed by the Monte Carlo method.
【作者单位】：长沙理工大学汽车与机械工程学院;湖南省工程车辆安全性设计与可靠性技术重点实验室;公安部交通管理科学研究所;中山大学工学院广东省智能交通系统重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51775056) 广东省科技计划项目(2015B010110005) 道路交通安全公安部重点实验室开放基金(2016ZDSYSKFKT08)资助
【分类号】：U491.31

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