基于多主体系统的城市出行活动的微观模拟方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 20:24

本文选题：多主体系统 + 个体样本反推　；参考：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：城市形态,交通结构,社会经济发展情况,是公认的影响城市交通能源消耗,以及产生相应的城市环境影响问题的三大主要影响因素。而这三个问题还同时相互影响着彼此。而这三大因素是如何作用影响交通出行产生的能源消耗以及带来的环境影响的,这是本文试图要确定的答案。本文利用了微观模拟的概念,对城市通勤出行这一过程进行模拟。全文的理论基础在于城市是一个复杂适应系统,而交通系统作为其子系统,同样有着庞大而复杂的作用机制。区别于以往对于城市层面的交通系统宏观四阶段的建模方法,本文引入多主体系统建模思想,将每一个出行的个体作为模型的输入主体,将道路、地块作为固定主体,赋予他们属性,使整个城市微观模拟模型中组成城市的主体们互动起来,由于属性的引入,主体有了自我决策的能力,根据研究问题的层次,规划必要的决策规则,观察在不同的城市形态下,人们通勤交通出行的活动是怎样的,会消耗多少能源,产生多少环境影响。由于文本采用的是微观模拟思路,在主体的数据输入问题上,采用基于Monte Carlo算法的城市居民出行个体反推模型,利用官方的统计数据,配合典型的抽样调查以及常识性的通用规则和交通出行行为研究,反推出整个城市的出行个体样本,克服城市层面微观模拟时的输入数据不足的问题。并在反推时通过多次的重复试验确定反推结果的收敛性,确保结果不失真。在微观模拟模型中,通过对城市形态的抽象,赋予每个主体决策规则,本着多主体建模的K.I.S.S.(Keep it simple,stupid)原则,用简单的规则是复杂系统产生复杂的,却又有规律的结果,从中了解复杂适应系统的进化机制。文本在确定了模型的结构,并讨论了各主体的运行规则后,通过案例分析,比较了棋盘路网的单中心城市和多中心城市在交通通勤出行总量以及交通能源消耗量上的差异,观察了城市形对交通出行能耗和环境影响的作用。
[Abstract]:Urban form, traffic structure, and social and economic development are the three major factors that affect urban traffic energy consumption and the corresponding urban environmental impact. The three problems also affect each other at the same time. And the three factors are how to use the energy consumption and the belt to affect transportation. This is an answer to the environmental impact of this article. This paper uses the concept of micro simulation to simulate the process of urban commuter travel. The theoretical basis of the full text is that the city is a complex adaptive system, and the traffic system has a huge and complex mechanism of action as its subsystem. In the macro four stage modeling method of the urban level traffic system, this paper introduces the multi-agent system modeling idea, and takes each individual as the input body of the model, and gives the road and land as the fixed body, giving them the attributes, making the whole city micro simulation model composed of the main people of the city to interact, due to the attributes. The main body has the ability of self decision making, according to the level of research problems, planning the necessary decision-making rules, and observing the activities of commuter travel in different urban forms, how much energy will be consumed and how many environmental impacts will be consumed. On the basis of the Monte Carlo algorithm, the urban residents travel individual backstepping model, using the official statistical data, combined with the typical sampling survey and common sense rules and travel behavior research, to reverse the whole city travel individual sample and overcome the problem of insufficient input data in the urban layer micro simulation. The convergency of the backstepping results is determined by repeated repeated tests to ensure that the results are not distorted. In the microsimulation model, the rules are given to each subject by the abstract of the city form, the K.I.S.S. (Keep it simple, stupid) principle of multi-agent modeling, the complex system is produced by the simple rules, but the rules are also the rules. The result of the law is to understand the evolutionary mechanism of the complex adaptive system. The text has determined the structure of the model, and after discussing the running rules of the main bodies, the difference of the total traffic commuter travel total travel and the energy consumption of the multi center cities in the chessboard road network is compared and the urban shape is observed. The role of traffic energy consumption and environmental impact.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】