定制公交出行方式选择模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 05:06

本文选题：定制公交 + 通勤出行　；参考：《东南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：定制公交的发展对于优化城市客运交通结构、缓解城市交通拥堵、减少交通污染具有重要的意义。本文选取定制公交为研究对象,通过构建不同方式出行者向定制公交出行选择模型对其进行定量研究,分析定制公交出行选择的影响因素,并结合模型结果提出定制公交运营关键性问题和解决措施。首先,对定制公交内涵进行界定,结合定制公交现状对定制公交功能特性进行分析；在对定制公交同其他交通方式特性对比分析的基础上研究其功能定位；分析定制公交客流来源,基于出行调查结果分析定制公交出行方式选择特征。其次,从决策过程和决策特征研究通勤出行方式选择决策理论；从出行需求层次、动力和阻力方面对通勤出行方式转移机理进行研究；利用双基点法建立通勤出行方式选择决策模型,研究通勤出行方案优劣。再次,基于出行方式选择理论和调查数据,分别构建不同方式出行者向定制公交出行选择的二元Logistic模型;经过模型建立、变量选取、参数估计及模型检验等过程得到模型结果,并对模型结果进行分析。最后,基于模型结果,分析定制公交运营关键问题,并利用模型结果提出解决措施和方案。
[Abstract]:The development of customized public transport is of great significance to optimize the structure of urban passenger traffic, alleviate urban traffic congestion and reduce traffic pollution. In this paper, custom-made public transport is selected as the research object, through the construction of different modes of travelers to custom-made public transport travel choice model for quantitative research, analysis of customized public transport travel choice factors. Combined with the results of the model, the key problems and solutions of customized bus operation are put forward. First of all, the connotation of customized public transport is defined, combined with the current situation of customized public transport to analyze the functional characteristics of customized public transport; on the basis of comparative analysis of the characteristics of customized public transport and other traffic modes, the functional positioning of customized public transport is studied. The source of custom bus passenger flow is analyzed, and the choice characteristics of custom bus travel mode are analyzed based on the result of trip investigation. Secondly, the decision theory of commuting travel mode selection is studied from the decision process and decision characteristics, and the mechanism of commuting trip mode transfer is studied from the aspects of travel demand level, power and resistance. The decision model of commuting mode selection is established by using double base point method, and the advantages and disadvantages of commuting travel scheme are studied. Thirdly, based on the theory of travel mode selection and the survey data, the binary Logistic model of travel choice from different modes to customized public transport is constructed, and the model results are obtained through the process of model establishment, variable selection, parameter estimation and model checking. The results of the model are analyzed. Finally, based on the results of the model, the key problems of customized public transportation operation are analyzed, and the solutions and schemes are proposed using the results of the model.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17

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