基于可靠性理论的内河船闸维修决策研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 14:29

本文选题：工程全寿命周期 + 维修管理决策　；参考：《东南大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：随着大规模建设项目的逐步完成,设施维护管理研究已经成为工程管理领域研究的热点问题之一。船闸作为大宗货物水路运输通道上的关键基础设施,科学的维护管理对系统正常运行、保障航道畅通和促进国民经济发展具有重要意义。在设施维修决策研究中,寿命过程的维修信息越来越受到重视,然而船闸维修信息中隐含的系统可靠性规律尚未被挖掘和利用。论文立足于工程全寿命周期,应用复杂系统可靠性理论和维修决策理论,以维修事件数据为基础,借鉴制造业可靠性分析的思路和方法,研究了船闸寿命过程的可靠性特征和维修管理决策。研究的主要内容包括：(1)基础理论与研究架构。梳理了全寿命周期管理理论、复杂系统可靠性理论和维修决策理论,分析了工程全寿命周期管理的核心任务,提出了船闸全寿命周期可靠性分析和维修管理决策研究的总体框架。(2)构建了船闸维修信息集成的霍尔三维结构模型。建立了船闸工程系统分解结构(WLEBS),从时间维、结构维和信息维,构建了船闸维修信息集成的霍尔三维结构模型,解决了“维修信息孤岛”和可靠性分析数据瓶颈的问题。(3)构建了基于事件数据的船闸可靠性分析(RABED)模型,并用17座船闸的历史维修数据验证了模型的实用性。论文突破了可靠性理论在土木工程领域的具体应用,从复杂系统广义可靠性的视角定义了船闸系统可靠性指标,设计了RABED流程,研究了RABED模型可靠性参数估计方法,利用故障模式、影响和危害度分析(FMECA)方法和寿命分布模型,深入分析了船闸部件、子系统和系统的可靠性,通过实证研究得到了繁忙河段船闸的可靠性特征,为维修信息的利用提供了一套系统的解决方法,对其他设施寿命周期维修管理亦具有借鉴作用。(4)揭示了船闸寿命周期维修决策变量相互关系的规律性。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析得到年中修费用与大修费用、中修部位数量正相关,与年运营能力指标负相关；中修发生时间与大修费用负相关,与年运营能力指标正相关。船闸寿命过程中大修、中修与运营能力之间这一关系,类似于人的健康与其劳动能力之间的关系,具有合理的经济学解释,符合实际情况。(5)构建了船闸寿命周期维修决策框架和优化模型,并通过实例验证了它们在船闸寿命周期管理中的科学性。论文系统研究了船闸维修决策的影响因素,构建了完整的维修决策分析程序；从预期成本与使用性能两个角度,建立了船闸寿命周期维修决策指标体系；综合不同的维修模式,以及维修事件发生时间和维修占用时间等因素的随机性,构建了船闸系统的蒙特卡罗动态可靠性仿真模型,以繁忙河段单线船闸的维修结构优化为例,解释了维修决策框架和优化模型在船闸寿命周期管理中的具体应用。论文的研究对于拓展复杂系统可靠性理论的应用领域,进一步完善工程全寿命周期管理理论,深入地把握船闸系统的可靠性特征,为管理部门在多变的环境条件下进行科学合理的维修决策,实现船闸全寿命周期管理目标,具有十分重要的理论与实践意义。
[Abstract]:With the gradual completion of large-scale construction projects, the research of maintenance and management of facilities has become one of the hot issues in the field of engineering management. As the key infrastructure of the bulk cargo waterway transport channel, the scientific maintenance and management of the ship is of great significance to the normal operation of the system, the smooth passage of the waterway and the promotion of the development of the national economy. The maintenance information of life process has been paid more and more attention in the research of maintenance decision-making. However, the system reliability law implied in the maintenance information of the ship lock has not been excavated and used. The reliability characteristics and maintenance management decision of the ship lock life process are studied. The main contents of the research include: (1) basic theory and research framework. The theory of life cycle management, the reliability theory of complex system and the theory of maintenance decision-making are combed, and the core of the life cycle management of the project is analyzed. The overall framework of the life cycle reliability analysis and maintenance management decision research of the ship lock is proposed. (2) the Holzer three-dimensional structure model of the ship lock maintenance information integration is constructed. The decomposition structure of the ship lock engineering system (WLEBS) is set up, and the three-dimensional structure model of the maintenance information integration of the ship lock is constructed from the time dimension, the structure maintenance information dimension and the information dimension of the ship lock maintenance information. The problem of "maintenance information isolated island" and reliability analysis data bottleneck is solved. (3) the ship lock reliability analysis (RABED) model based on event data is constructed, and the practicability of the model is verified with the historical maintenance data of 17 ship locks. The paper breaks through the application of reliability theory in the field of soil and wood engineering, and can be generalized from the complex system in a broad sense. The reliability index of the ship lock system is defined by the angle of sex, the RABED process is designed, the method of estimating the reliability parameter of the RABED model is studied. The reliability of the ship lock component, the subsystem and the system is analyzed by the failure mode, the influence and hazard analysis (FMECA) and the life distribution model, and the busy river section is obtained through the empirical study. The reliability characteristics of the ship lock provide a systematic solution for the use of maintenance information, and it can also be used for reference for the maintenance and management of other facilities. (4) the regularity of the relationship between the maintenance decision variables of the lifecycle of the ship locks is revealed. The multiple linear regression analysis method is adopted to quantitatively analyze the annual repair cost and overhaul. There is a positive correlation between the amount of the cost and the number of middle repair parts, and the negative correlation with the annual operating capability index; the time of the repair of the middle repair is negatively related to the overhaul cost, and is positively related to the annual operating capability index. The relationship between the repair of the ship lock life process, the relationship between the repair and the operation ability is similar to the relationship between the human health and the labor ability, and has a reasonable economic solution. In accordance with the actual situation. (5) construction of the life cycle maintenance decision-making framework and optimization model of the ship lock are constructed, and the scientific characteristics of them in the life cycle management of the ship lock are verified by an example. The thesis systematically studies the influencing factors of the maintenance decision of the ship lock, and constructs a complete maintenance decision analysis program; from the expected cost and the use performance of two angles. The dynamic reliability simulation model of the ship lock system is constructed, and the maintenance decision of the single line ship sluice in the busy river section is taken as an example, and the maintenance decision is explained. The concrete application of frame and optimization model in the life cycle management of ship lock. The research of this paper will expand the application field of the reliability theory of the complex system, further improve the theory of the life cycle management of the project, grasp the reliability characteristics of the ship lock system, and carry out scientific and reasonable dimension for the management department under the changeable environment conditions. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to repair decision-making and achieve the goal of life cycle management of shiplock.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U641.8

【参考文献】