改进灰色模型在海上交通综合安全指数预测应用

发布时间：2018-06-15 02:16

本文选题：海上交通综合指数 + 改进灰色模型　；参考：《中国航海》2017年01期

【摘要】：为提高海上交通综合安全指数的预测精度,弥补传统预测方法的不足,构造一种改进的灰色预测模型。在对传统的灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的基本原理和预测精度进行阐述的基础上,引入弱化算子序列对灰色预测模型进行改进,设计一种改进的灰色预测模型。以2004—2013年海上交通综合安全指数4项指标历史数据为基础,进行传统灰色模型预测和改进灰色模型预测,并绘制出2种预测模型的实际值和预测值的拟合曲线。结果表明:改进灰色模型的预测精度和拟合曲线都比传统灰色模型要好,能真实反映海上交通综合安全指数的发展趋势,预测结果具有一定的可靠性和实用性。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the comprehensive safety index of marine traffic and make up for the deficiency of the traditional forecasting methods, an improved grey forecasting model is constructed. On the basis of expounding the basic principle and prediction precision of the traditional grey prediction model GM1 (1), an improved grey prediction model is designed by introducing the weakening operator sequence to improve the grey prediction model. Based on the historical data of four indexes of comprehensive safety index of marine traffic from 2004 to 2013, the traditional grey model and the improved grey model are used to predict and to draw the fitting curves between the actual values and the predicted values of the two kinds of prediction models. The results show that the prediction accuracy and fitting curve of the improved grey model are better than those of the traditional grey model, which can truly reflect the development trend of the comprehensive safety index of marine traffic, and the prediction results have certain reliability and practicability.
【作者单位】：大连海事大学航海学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(61401057) 交通运输部应用基础研究项目(2014329225010) 马六甲和新加坡海峡超大型船舶航行风险分析及对策研究(01831508) 海上交通安全风险研究(80714003)
【分类号】：U698

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