混合交通环境下车速离散对交通安全的影响机理研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 01:22

本文选题：车速离散 + 公路　；参考：《东南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：干线公路城镇段在复杂道路环境及混合交通流的共同作用下,车速离散现象尤为突出,交通事故高发,其交通安全问题研究异常复杂。如何针对我国以干线公路城镇段为代表的典型混合交通环境,研究车速离散的演化机理及其对交通安全的影响,面临着新的挑战。本文以干线公路穿越城镇段为研究对象,对交通流车速离散与交通冲突状况进行定性与定量分析,以求基于车速离散程度评估路段交通安全风险。首先,基于所采集的车速离散相关数据,对车速离散的成因及其影响因素进行研究分析；基于混合交通环境下车速离散影响因素解析结果,确定与车速离散相关的特征指标与影响因素。其次,根据采集的交通冲突数据,综合分析车速离散的相关特征因素与相关交通冲突之间的关系。结合Logistic回归模型理论,量化特征指标和相关交通冲突的关系,进而构建车速离散背景下交通冲突预测模型。再次,通过对采集样本的视频数据分析,基于故障树模型理论,构建车速离散背景下交通事故风险产生机理的结构模型。基于上述交通冲突预测模型和现场采集车速离散数据结果,在交通冲突预测模型基础上,结合故障树模型的拓扑结构,建立贝叶斯网络模型,以事故概率、严重程度与安全等级为输出元素,构建基于车速离散程度的交通安全风险评估模型,并结合实际案例验证其有效性。最后,论文总结了混合交通环境下车速离散对交通安全的影响机理以及在研究中尚存在的缺点以及仍待改进之处,并展望未来在车速离散背景下对混合交通条件下道路交通安全评估的研究前景。
[Abstract]:Under the combined action of complex road environment and mixed traffic flow, the phenomenon of speed dispersion is particularly prominent in the urban section of trunk roads, and the traffic accidents are high. The study of traffic safety is extremely complex. How to study the evolution mechanism of speed dispersion and its influence on traffic safety in the typical mixed traffic environment, which is represented by the urban section of trunk roads in China, is facing new challenges. In this paper, the traffic speed dispersion and traffic conflict are qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed to evaluate the traffic safety risk based on the speed dispersion degree. First of all, based on the collected discrete speed data, the causes of speed dispersion and its influencing factors are studied and analyzed; based on the analytical results of vehicle speed discrete factors in mixed traffic environment, The characteristic indexes and influencing factors related to the discrete speed are determined. Secondly, according to the traffic conflict data collected, the relationship between the correlation characteristic factors of discrete speed and the traffic conflict is analyzed synthetically. Combined with Logistic regression model theory, the relationship between characteristic indexes and related traffic conflicts is quantified, and then the traffic conflict prediction model under the background of discrete speed is constructed. Thirdly, based on the theory of fault tree model, the structure model of traffic accident risk generation mechanism under the background of discrete speed is constructed by analyzing the video data of collected samples. Based on the above traffic conflict prediction model and the results of the discrete speed data collected on the spot, based on the traffic conflict prediction model and the topological structure of the fault tree model, the Bayesian network model is established to calculate the probability of accidents. The severity and safety grade are the output elements. A traffic safety risk assessment model based on the speed dispersion is constructed, and the effectiveness of the model is verified by practical cases. Finally, the paper summarizes the influence mechanism of speed dispersion on traffic safety in the mixed traffic environment, the shortcomings in the research and the place that still needs to be improved. The future research prospect of road traffic safety assessment under the condition of mixed traffic is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

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