寒地城市冬季居民出行方式划分研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 06:57

本文选题：寒地城市 + 居民出行特征　；参考：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：居民的出行方式结构是城市交通需求预测的重要环节,而交通需求的模型及预测研究是未来城市交通行业研究的重要方向,给建设项目的决策管理提供重要的定量分析数据,也是指导政府进行相关政策、规划、建设的有效手段。合理的居民出行方式结构能够保障交通系统的运行效率,而寒地城市冬季寒冷气候条件下,部分交通出行方式的效率降低,并且出现了一系列的交通问题,如道路通行能力降低、车辆运行困难增多、非机动车出行大比例减少、交通事故频频发生等等,情况严重时甚至会导致城市交通系统的紊乱和瘫痪,这种状态下,居民的出行方式构成必然会收到影响。解决寒地城市冬季交通问题的重要思路,是分析研究寒冷条件下居民出行方式选择问题。本文针对寒地城市冬季居民出行方式划分的预测模型展开研究。首先对寒地城市进行冬季的居民出行调查,并与夏季居民出行特征进行对比,明确寒冷气候对居民出行方式选择的影响;其次用敏感性分析法分析冬季出行方式划分预测模型建立所需的因素,主要包括出行时间、出行费用、安全性、舒适性和便利性等影响因素;再次在NL模型的基础之上建立合理的出行方式划分模型,虚拟选择肢为非机动车出行方式和机动车出行方式,并分析其参数估计的方法及检验统计量的结算;最后以吉林市的调查数据为依据,通过软件SPSS进行参数的标定及模型统计量的检验,对现状出行方式进行重新分配,并预测未来年各出行方式的比例。寒冷条件下的城市居民出行方式结构,直接影响着冬季人们在城市中出行的效率,合理的方式分担,可以使冬季寒冷及冰雪条件下的交通问题得到缓解,提高城市冬季交通资源的利用效率,最大限度地发挥道路系统的的作用及功能,进而采取更有效的交通管理策略,最终达到改善城市交通状况的目的。
[Abstract]:The travel mode structure of residents is an important part of urban traffic demand prediction, and the model and prediction research of traffic demand is an important direction of urban transportation industry research in the future, which provides important quantitative analysis data for decision management of construction projects. Also is the guidance government carries on the related policy, the plan, the construction effective means. Reasonable travel mode structure can ensure the efficiency of transportation system, while in cold cities, the efficiency of some travel modes is reduced in winter, and there are a series of traffic problems. If the capacity of the road decreases, the operation of vehicles increases, the large proportion of non-motor vehicles travel decreases, traffic accidents occur frequently, and so on, when the situation is serious, it may even lead to the disorder and paralysis of the urban traffic system. In this state, The composition of residents' travel patterns is bound to be affected. An important way to solve the winter traffic problem in cold cities is to analyze and study the choice of residents' travel mode under cold conditions. In this paper, the prediction model of urban residents' travel patterns in winter in cold regions is studied. First, the winter residents travel in cold cities, and compared with summer residents travel characteristics, to determine the impact of cold weather on the choice of residents travel mode; Secondly, the factors needed to establish winter travel mode classification and prediction model are analyzed by sensitivity analysis, including travel time, travel cost, safety, comfort and convenience. Thirdly, on the basis of NL model, a reasonable travel mode partition model is established, and the virtual choice is non-motor vehicle travel mode and motor vehicle travel mode, and the method of parameter estimation and the settlement of test statistics are analyzed. Finally, based on the investigation data of Jilin City, the parameters are calibrated and the model statistics are checked by software SPSS, the current travel mode is redistributed, and the proportion of each trip mode in the future is forecasted. The structure of travel mode of urban residents under cold conditions has a direct impact on the efficiency and reasonable sharing of urban travel in winter, which can alleviate the traffic problems under cold winter and ice and snow conditions. To improve the utilization efficiency of urban traffic resources in winter, to maximize the role and function of the road system, and then to adopt more effective traffic management strategies to improve the urban traffic situation.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.12

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